IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201731.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wealth-to-Income Ratio and Stock Market Movements: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality Test

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Eastern Mediterranian University, Montpellier Business School and University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Ricardo M. Sousa

    (University of Minho and LSE Alumni Association)

  • Mark E. Wohar

    (University of Nebraska-Omaha and Loughborough University)

Abstract

We use a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test to analyze the predictive ability of the wealth-to-income ratio (wy) for excess stock returns and their volatility. Our results reveal that the wealth-to-income ratio is nonlinearly related with excess stock returns, and hence, results from linear Granger causality tests cannot be deemed robust. When we apply the nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test, we find that the wealth-to-income ratio can predict excess stock returns over the majority of the conditional distribution, with the exception being the extreme ends, i.e. when the market is in deep bear or bull phases. However, the wealth-to-income ratio has no predictability for the volatility of excess stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Ricardo M. Sousa & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Wealth-to-Income Ratio and Stock Market Movements: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality Test," Working Papers 201731, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201731
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Linking U.S. State-level housing market returns, and the consumption-(Dis)Aggregate wealth ratio," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 779-810.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia & Eric Olson, 2020. "Effect of uncertainty on U.S. stock returns and volatility: evidence from over eighty years of high-frequency data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(16), pages 1305-1311, September.
    3. Mauro Costantini & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "Consumption, asset wealth, equity premium, term spread, and flight to quality," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 26(3), pages 778-807, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock returns; volatility; nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201731. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.