IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/prc/dpaper/ks--2019-dp57.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impacts of Industrialization on Freight Movement in China

Author

Listed:
  • Dongmei Chen
  • Yagyavalk Bhatt

    (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)

Abstract

China’s rapid economic growth has enabled the fast development of freight transport across the country. What might the impact of future economic growth be on freight movement in China? To answer this question, this paper establishes the link between key indicators of industrialization and freight transport through the use of a dynamic vector autoregressive model. Based on the analysis of two different scenarios, the study finds that: China’s freight turnover could double out to 2030 if the country remains at the later stages of industrialization. China could reduce the volume of its freight transport by transforming its process of industrialization through coordinated urban planning, new materials, developing high-tech industries and expanding the service sector. Together, these measures could see freight transport drop by 2.6 trillion tonne-kilometer, 6% less than under the business-as-usual model. Changes to the country’s economic structure may also lead to structural changes in modes of freight transportation, including an increased share for rail, the growing use of automotive transportation, and the increased use of containers in an integrated freight transport system.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongmei Chen & Yagyavalk Bhatt, 2019. "The Impacts of Industrialization on Freight Movement in China," Discussion Papers ks--2019-dp57, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2019-dp57
    DOI: 10.30573/KS--2019-DP57
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kapsarc.org/research/publications/the-impacts-of-industrialization-on-freight-movement-in-china/
    File Function: First version, 2017
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.30573/KS--2019-DP57?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Freight Mobility; Freight Modeling; Industrial Diversification; Transportation;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2019-dp57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael Gaffney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/kapsasa.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.