IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/98519.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Modelling for North Cyprus’ Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Tursoy, Turgut

Abstract

This study aim is to explain relationship between the economic growth, consumption and the governmental investment spending with using yearly North Cyprus data between the period of 1985 and 2008. The available data from State Planning Organization which is an agent of Prime Ministry of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is most of the data ending in 2008. The model fit the data well enough and the marks are consistent with the equilibrium relationship derived from the neo-classical economic theory that is increases both in whether public or private consumption and investment cause GDP growth by some multiple. Theoretically, if a country government spending more it is possible to bring more economic growth. Thus, it is possible to North Cyprus to reaching a high level of economic growth, so governments are not able to accomplish their promises completely that they gave before elections. Fundamentally, a country income could be increased by raising the public and the private investment and consumption. However, the precise amount of such growth by consumption and investment that desire by government to serve the best to the country, this can only reached by if the necessary parameters are identified and counted which they are provided the desired level of economic growth; as a result, in this study this done by applied econometric analysis of economic growth. This study aim is to summarize a model for incorporate a forecast with a structural model. The method of forecast is to combine the future participation from the data that consist with the model. It assumed that the model is enough for provide a future forecast for economic growth and this would be the case for this study. The method for generating a model trusted on the short data period. Because, it would be assumed that short data provide more consisted and robust result for Forecast of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tursoy, Turgut, 2013. "Structural Modelling for North Cyprus’ Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 98519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98519
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98519/1/MPRA_paper_98519.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    2. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    3. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
    4. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, Herman, 2007. "Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 159-165.
    5. Martinez-Martin Jaime & Morris Richard & Onorante Luca & Piersanti Fabio Massimo, 2024. "Merging Structural and Reduced-Form Models for Forecasting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 399-437, January.
    6. Skrypnik, Dmitriy, 2016. "A Macroeconomic Model of the Russian Economy," MPRA Paper 93506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2016. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Herbst 2016," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65638, March.
    8. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Working Papers 0718, Banco de España.
    9. Croushore, D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 483-489, December.
    10. Morck, Randall & Yeung, Bernard, 2011. "Economics, History, and Causation," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 39-63, April.
    11. Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41, February.
    12. Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 83(Q 1), pages 16-29.
    13. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich: Prognose 2012/13 und regionale Entwicklung 2006/2011. Teilbericht 2," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67110, March.
    14. D. Tutberidze & D. Japaridze, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 2(191), pages 42-49.
    15. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    16. Banik, Nilanjan & Biswas, Basudeb, 2012. "The curious case of Indian agriculture," MPRA Paper 38634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
    18. Karamé, Frédéric & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2008. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics: Does theory meet the data?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1041-1087, April.
    19. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2017. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Winter 2017," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 62400, March.
    20. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short frequency indicators; Forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.