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Structural Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Movement on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

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  • Benjamin, Oluwasegun Olawale
  • Fatile, John Ojo

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact and causal relationship between exchange rate movement and stock market performance in Nigeria using monthly data spanning from February 2001 to December 2017. Estimated models include pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis, and the primary model. Johanson co-integration, IGARCH (1,1) and Pairwise Granger causality techniques were used for the analysis. The result of the co-integration test suggested the absence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The estimated IGARCH (1,1) model revealed that the exchange rate and money supply have positive impact on stock market performance. Furthermore, the paper established evidence of a one-way causality from exchange rate to stock market performance in the primary and pre-crisis models and no causality during the crisis and post-crisis periods. Thus, we recommend that the monetary authority should pay close attention to exchange rate movement, address the problem of market manipulations, and employ robust measures to protect the stock market from possible future crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin, Oluwasegun Olawale & Fatile, John Ojo, 2019. "Structural Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Movement on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98329, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Nov 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98329
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Serpil Kahraman Akdogu & Ayse Ozden Birkan, 2016. "Interaction between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate in Emerging Market Economies," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(1), pages 80-94, June.
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    3. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rate Interactions in Nigeria: An Intra-Global Financial Crisis Maiden Investigation," MPRA Paper 13283, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2009.
    4. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2009. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rate Interactions in Nigeria: A Maiden Intra-Global Financial Crisis Investigation," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3 & 4), pages 7-23, September.
    5. Lorraine Rupande & Hilary Tinotenda Muguto & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2019. "Investor sentiment and stock return volatility: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1600233-160, January.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    7. Yingying HAN & Xiang ZHOU, 2017. "The Relationship between Stock and Exchange Rates for BRICS Countries Pre - and Post - Crisis: A Mixed C - VINE Copula Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 38-59, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; stock market performance; financial crisis; IGARCH model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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