IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/96618.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long run and Short run Macroeconomics Determinants of Economic Growth in the USA: Cointegration and VECM Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Bakari, Sayef
  • Tiba, Sofien

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to search determinants of economic growth in the USA in the long run and the short run for the period 1970 – 2016. By using co-integration analysis and Vector Error Correction Model, we make the compensation of a lot of variables that they did not include with each other before. Empirical analysis show that in the long run that Final consumption expenditure, population, domestic investment, foreign direct investment inflow, and export are the source of economic growth in the long run, however foreign direct investment outflow, military expenditure, tax revenue, and imports are not seen as a source of economic growth in the long run. In the short run, all of the variables have not any effect on economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Bakari, Sayef & Tiba, Sofien, 2019. "Long run and Short run Macroeconomics Determinants of Economic Growth in the USA: Cointegration and VECM Analysis," MPRA Paper 96618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96618
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96618/1/MPRA_paper_96618.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "15 Years of New Growth Economics : What Have we Learnt?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 5-15, August.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    7. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    8. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    9. Tiba, Sofien & Frikha, Mohamed, 2018. "Income, trade openness and energy interactions: Evidence from simultaneous equation modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 799-811.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mkadmi, Jamel Eddine & Bakari, Sayef & Othmani, Ameni, 2021. "The Impact of Tax Revenues and Domestic Investments on Economic Growth in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 108387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bakari, Sayef & El Weriemmi, Malek, 2022. "Causality between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 113079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bakari, Sayef & El Weriemmi, Malek, 2022. "Exploring the Impact of Agricultural Investment on Economic Growth in France," MPRA Paper 113970, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. El Weriemmi, Malek & Bakari, Sayef, 2024. "The Impact of CO2 Emissions, Domestic Investment and Trade Openness on Economic Growth: New Evidence from North African Countries," MPRA Paper 122152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Reinvest the relationship between exports and economic growth in African countries: New insights from innovative econometric methods," MPRA Paper 108785, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    2. Frank Asche, 2001. "Testing the effect of an anti-dumping duty: The US salmon market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 343-355.
    3. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    4. Usman Qamar Sheikh & Muhammad Zafar Iqbal & Hafiz Khalil Ahmad, 2016. "The Impact of Foreign Aid, Energy Production and Human Capital on Income Inequality: A Case Study of Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(1), pages 1-9, March.
    5. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    7. Esther Stroe-Kunold & Joachim Werner, 2009. "A drunk and her dog: a spurious relation? Cointegration tests as instruments to detect spurious correlations between integrated time series," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 43(6), pages 913-940, November.
    8. Bushara, Mohammed O. A. & Abdelmahmod, Murtada Kh. A., 2016. "Efficiency of selected camel markets in Sudan: A multivariate approach (1995-2011)," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246910, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    9. Chee-Keong Choong & Wai-Ching Poon & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Zulkornain Yusop, 2003. "The Validity of PPP Theory in ASEAN-Five: Another Look on Cointegration and Panel Data Analysis," International Trade 0309018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Asche, Frank & Osmundsen, Petter & Tveteras, Ragnar, 2002. "European market integration for gas? Volume flexibility and political risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 249-265, May.
    11. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Asma Elmakki, 2018. "The Nexus Between Industrial Exports And Economic Growth In Tunisia: Empirical Analysis," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(2), pages 31-53, December.
    12. John G. Gallo & Larry J. Lockwood & Ying Zhang, 2013. "Structuring Global Property Portfolios: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(1), pages 53-82.
    13. Andriamanga, Fidimanantsoa, 2017. "Relation entre l’énergie et la croissance économique : approche empirique appliquée au cas de Madagascar pour la periode 1995 à 2015 [Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in ," MPRA Paper 82967, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Qadri, Faisal Sultan & Kadri, Adeel Sultan, 2010. "Relationship between education, health and crime: fable, fallacy or fact," MPRA Paper 30638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Olagunju, Kehinde Oluseyi & Feng, Siyi & Patton, Myles, 2021. "Dynamic relationships among phosphate rock, fertilisers and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from a vector error correction model and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Phengpis, Chanwit & Apilado, Vince P., 2004. "Economic interdependence and common stochastic trends: A comparative analysis between EMU and non-EMU stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
    17. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2015. "La Paradoja de Feldstein-Horioka – Evidencia para Colombia durante 1925-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 4-24, June.
    18. Campiche, Jody L. & Bryant, Henry L. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2007. "Examining the Evolving Correspondence Between Petroleum Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9881, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Chin Lee & M. Azali, 2010. "Currency Linkages Among Asean," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 459-470.
    20. Francisco Rebelo & Ester Gomes da Silva, 2013. "Export variety, technological content and economic performance: The case of Portugal," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1310, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jun 2013.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macro Determinants; Economic Growth; Cointegration Analysis; VECM; USA.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96618. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.