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Economic integration and macroeconomic shocks in Eurasia

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  • Gharleghi, Behrooz

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to make an assessment of the symmetry/asymmetry of underlying macroeconomic shocks in the Eurasia region. A model is developed to distinguish structural global supply shocks, regional supply shocks, and domestic supply shocks using a reduced-form structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR). Empirical results reveal that the correlation between domestic and regional shocks, as well as between domestic and global shocks, are clearly divided into two groups of countries: (i) domestic (country-specific) supply shocks are more correlated with global shocks in the European part of the region (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine; with the exception of Mongolia here); and (ii) domestic shocks are mostly correlated with regional shocks in the Central Asian part of the region (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan; with the exception of Moldova here). This has implications for the Chinese economy in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Gharleghi, Behrooz, 2019. "Economic integration and macroeconomic shocks in Eurasia," MPRA Paper 95545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95545
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 295-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Vinokurov, Evgeny, 2017. "Eurasian Economic Union: Current state and preliminary results," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 54-70.
    4. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2013. "A Eurasian (or a Soviet) Union? Consequences of further economic integration in the Commonwealth of Independent States," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 411-420.
    5. Vinokurov, Evgeny & Demidenko, Mikhail & Korshunov, Dmitry & Kovacs, Mihaly, 2017. "Customs unions, currency crises, and monetary policy coordination: The case of the Eurasian Economic Union," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 280-295.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartwell, Christopher A. & Zadorozhna, Olha, 2024. "The connections that bind: Political connectivity in the face of geopolitical disruption," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(3).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurasia; China; Macroeconomic shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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