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Mortality forecasting for the Algerian population with considering cohort effect

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  • Flici, Farid

Abstract

Mortality forecasting became a big challenge not only for demographers but also for actuaries. Different models were proposed for this issue while insuring effciency and simplicity. These models have been based on time and age dimensions. The analysis of mortality reductions schemes by age shows some inequalities related to age. Generally, the difference is well apparent between lower and higher ages. This can't be only tied to time, but also to the year of birth. Considering the cohort effect in morality forecasting has to improve the fitting quality. In the present paper, we propose to forecast the age-specific mortality rates in Algeria with considering cohort effect by comparison a set of models.

Suggested Citation

  • Flici, Farid, 2015. "Mortality forecasting for the Algerian population with considering cohort effect," MPRA Paper 92173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92173
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. FLICI, Farid, 2015. "Provisionnement des rentes viagères en Algérie entre approche statique et approche prospective [Life Annuities Reserving in Algeria between static approach and prospective approach]," MPRA Paper 91917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bengtsson, Tommy & Broström, Göran, 2009. "Do conditions in early life affect old-age mortality directly and indirectly? Evidence from 19th-century rural Sweden," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(9), pages 1583-1590, May.
    3. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
    4. FLICI, Farid, 2015. "Estimation of the missing data in the Algerian mortality surface by using an age-time-segmented Lee-Carter Model," SocArXiv xufwg, Center for Open Science.
    5. Haberman, Steven & Renshaw, Arthur, 2009. "On age-period-cohort parametric mortality rate projections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 255-270, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortality forecasting; Cohort; fitting; Algeria; life annuities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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