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What happens when the income tax increases?

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  • Cerqua, Augusto

Abstract

This paper exploits a sudden income tax rate increase in a large Italian region to examine whether this induced taxpayers to change their tax-related behavior. By using a spatial regression discontinuity design and a detailed dataset at the municipality level, we find a sizable and persistent decrease in declared income only for the self-employed and entrepreneurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerqua, Augusto, 2018. "What happens when the income tax increases?," MPRA Paper 89857, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:89857
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/89857/1/MPRA_paper_89857.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heim, Bradley T., 2010. "The responsiveness of self-employment income to tax rate changes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 940-950, December.
    2. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    3. M. Rosaria Marino & Roberta Zizza, 2012. "Personal Income Tax Evasion in Italy: An Estimate by Taxpayer Type," Chapters, in: Michael Pickhardt & Aloys Prinz (ed.), Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Weber, Guglielmo, 1989. "An expenditure-based estimate of Britain's black economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 17-32, June.
    5. Melissa Dell, 2010. "The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 1863-1903, November.
    6. Thomas J. Holmes, 1998. "The Effect of State Policies on the Location of Manufacturing: Evidence from State Borders," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(4), pages 667-705, August.
    7. Nikolaos Artavanis & Adair Morse & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2016. "Measuring Income Tax Evasion Using Bank Credit: Evidence from Greece," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 739-798.
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    Cited by:

    1. Allen, Franklin & Gu, Xian & Jagtiani, Julapa, 2022. "Fintech, Cryptocurrencies, and CBDC: Financial Structural Transformation in China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income tax; tax evasion; spatial regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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