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Skills, Population Aging, and the Pattern of Trade

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  • Gu, Ke
  • Stoyanov, Andrey

Abstract

In this paper we investigate a particular mechanism through which differences in demographic composition across countries affect international trade flows. Some cognitive functions are known to vary across the adult life span, and in particular the ability to update skills and adapt to changes in working conditions. As a country's population is getting older, it becomes increasingly difficult for firms to find workers with up-to-date skills. As a result, countries with aging populations will start losing comparative advantage in industries that rely heavily on workers' ability to adapt to frequent changes in working conditions. We test this hypothesis and find robust empirical evidence for a significant negative effect of population aging on comparative advantage of a country in industries which are intensive in skill adaptability of the labor force, in both the cross-sectional and the dynamic panel data sets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Ke & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2018. "Skills, Population Aging, and the Pattern of Trade," MPRA Paper 84349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:84349
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    worker adaptability; comparative advantage; population aging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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