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Do Imports and Exports Adjust Nonlinearly? Evidence from 100 Countries

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  • Arize, Augustine C.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen

Abstract

A country is said to live within its international budget constraint if its exports and imports are cointegrated. Previous studies that tried to verify the cointegration between exports and imports used linear models and supported the theory in almost 50% of countries. In this paper, when we use the nonlinear ARDL approach and asymmetry cointegration method, we support the long-run link between imports and exports in 94 out of 100 countries in our sample. This study is not only the most comprehensive study in the literature, but it is also the first to show that, indeed, trade flows adjust in a nonlinear fashion.

Suggested Citation

  • Arize, Augustine C. & BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen, 2017. "Do Imports and Exports Adjust Nonlinearly? Evidence from 100 Countries," MPRA Paper 82807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82807
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    10. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Lau, Evan & Fountas, Stilianos, 2003. "On the sustainability of current account deficits: evidence from four ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 465-487, June.
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    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2016. "Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-Curve Phenomenon," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 51-70, February.
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    16. Jamal HUSEIN, 2014. "Are Exports and Imports Cointegrated? Evidence from Nine MENA Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(1), pages 123-132.
    17. B. Andreosso‐O’Callaghan & Denis Kan, 2007. "Analysis Of The Current Account Position Of Four Asian Countries Before The 1997 Crisis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 47-61, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    2. Olufemi G. Onatunji, 2023. "Sustainability of current account deficits in Nigeria: evidence from the asymmetric NARDL approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(10), pages 1-22, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imports; Exports; Asymmetry Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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