IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/82694.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Model Prediksi Financial Distress Dengan Binary Logit (Studi Kasus Emiten Jakarta Islamic Index)
[Application of Binary Logit Regression on Financial Distress Prediction of Jakarta Islamic Index]

Author

Listed:
  • Iskandar, Azwar

Abstract

The purposes of this research were to analyze: (i) financial ratios choosen as predictor for financial distress prediction; (ii) accuration rate of prediction model that formed from analysis. The data used was from resume of financial report of companies at Indonesia Stock Exchange period of 2012-2013. This research used 23 companies of JII as samples with purposive sampling method. This research used binary logit regression analysis. The empirical result shown that the financial ratios such as Current Ratio (CR), Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Return Of Asset (ROA), Return On Equity (ROE) and yield (YLD) can be used for comparing and classifying companies to distress and non-distress group. The financial ratios such as ROA and ROE significantly can be used in predition model with accuration rate of 90,9%. That model also can be used as early warning signal. For regulators such as BEI and Otoritas Jasa Keuangan can use it as tool for evaluating, reviewing and controlling of companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Iskandar, Azwar, 2015. "Model Prediksi Financial Distress Dengan Binary Logit (Studi Kasus Emiten Jakarta Islamic Index) [Application of Binary Logit Regression on Financial Distress Prediction of Jakarta Islamic Index]," MPRA Paper 82694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82694
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/82694/1/MPRA_paper_82694.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    2. John, Kose & Lang, Larry H P & Netter, Jeffry, 1992. "The Voluntary Restructuring of Large Firms in Response to Performance Decline," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 891-917, July.
    3. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    4. Paul Asquith & Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 625-658.
    5. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    6. Hunter, John & Isachenkova, Natalia, 2001. "Failure risk: A comparative study of UK and Russian firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-521, July.
    7. Richard Whitaker, 1999. "The early stages of financial distress," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 123-132, June.
    8. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    9. Lev, Baruch & Sunder, Shyam, 1979. "Methodological issues in the use of financial ratios," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 187-210, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando, 2008. "Penggunaan Binary Logit untuk Prediksi Financial Distress Perusahaan Yang Tercatat Di Bursa Efek Jakarta [Financial Distress Prediction In Indonesian Stock Exchange]," MPRA Paper 36980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    3. Lars Schweizer & Andreas Nienhaus, 2017. "Corporate distress and turnaround: integrating the literature and directing future research," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 10(1), pages 3-47, June.
    4. Soo Young Kim, 2018. "Predicting hospitality financial distress with ensemble models: the case of US hotels, restaurants, and amusement and recreation," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 12(3), pages 483-503, September.
    5. Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 2006. "Understanding Differences Between Financial Distress and Bankruptcy," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 2(2), pages 1-17.
    6. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    7. Ferreira Filipe, Sara & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2016. "Pricing default risk: The good, the bad, and the anomaly," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 190-213.
    8. Jorge Antunes & Peter Wanke & Thiago Fonseca & Yong Tan, 2023. "Do ESG Risk Scores Influence Financial Distress? Evidence from a Dynamic NDEA Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-32, May.
    9. ElBannan, Mona A., 2021. "On the prediction of financial distress in emerging markets: What matters more? Empirical evidence from Arab spring countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    10. Duc Hong Vo & Binh Ninh Vo Pham & Chi Minh Ho & Michael McAleer, 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in Vietnam," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Nejadmalayeri, Ali, 2021. "Asset liquidity, business risk, and beta," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    12. Vo, D.H. & Pham, B.V.-N. & Pham, T.V.-T. & McAleer, M.J., 2019. "Corporate Financial Distress of Industry Level Listings in an Emerging Market," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2019-15, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    13. T.G. Saji, 2018. "Financial Distress and Stock Market Failures: Lessons from Indian Realty Sector," Vision, , vol. 22(1), pages 50-60, March.
    14. Kevin Aretz & Chris Florackis & Alexandros Kostakis, 2018. "Do Stock Returns Really Decrease with Default Risk? New International Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3821-3842, August.
    15. Mário S. Céu & Raquel M. Gaspar, 2023. "Financial Distress in European Vineyards and Olive Groves," Working Papers REM 2023/0266, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Deniz Anginer & Çelim Yıldızhan, 2018. "Is There a Distress Risk Anomaly? Pricing of Systematic Default Risk in the Cross-section of Equity Returns [The risk-adjusted cost of financial distress]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 633-660.
    17. Hernandez Tinoco, Mario & Wilson, Nick, 2013. "Financial distress and bankruptcy prediction among listed companies using accounting, market and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 394-419.
    18. Nielsen, Caren Yinxia, 2011. "Hidden in the Factors? The Effect of Credit Risk on the Cross-section of Equity Returns," Working Papers 2011:38, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2016.
    19. Dr. Giriati, 2021. "Turnaround Prediction Model with Content Dimension on Financial Distressed Firms," GATR Journals jfbr182, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    20. Gao, Li & He, Wei & Wang, Qian, 2019. "In search of distress risk in China's stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    binary logit; financial distress; JII;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:82694. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.