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Economic Forecasting Based on the Relationship between GDP and Real Money Supply

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  • BLINOV, Sergey

Abstract

Forecasts showing how the economy will be developing are very important both for the government and for all the economic agents, including citizens. In Russia, the common practice is to forecast based on price assumptions for hydrocarbons, primarily oil. Such an approach causes serious errors. This paper proposes a different approach driven by the close linkage between the GDP and the real money supply. By way of an example, forecast scenarios for Russia’s GDP in 2017 are adduced. Options for using the proposed methodology in economic policy (including anti-crisis policy) are suggested

Suggested Citation

  • BLINOV, Sergey, 2017. "Economic Forecasting Based on the Relationship between GDP and Real Money Supply," MPRA Paper 78717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78717
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78717/1/MPRA_paper_78717.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergey BLINOV, 2017. "Inflation and economic growth," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 345-358, September.
    2. BLINOV, Sergey, 2017. "Inflation and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 78212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. A. Illarionov, 1996. "The Theory Of "Shortage of Money" as a Reflection of Payments Crisis in the Russian Economy," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, vol. 12.
    4. BLINOV, Sergey, 2015. "How to Double Russia’s GDP," MPRA Paper 66625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Heiner Mikosch & Laura Solanko, 2019. "Forecasting Quarterly Russian GDP Growth with Mixed-Frequency Data," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 19-35, March.

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    1. BLINOV, Sergey, 2015. "Real Money and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 67461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Denisova Irina, 2000. "Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission: the Role of Industrial Interenterprise Arrears," EERC Working Paper Series 99-12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    3. Sergey BLINOV, 2017. "Inflation and economic growth," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 345-358, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Energy and the Macroeconomy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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