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اختبار العلاقة السببية والتكامل المشترك بين الادخار والاستثمار في الاقتصاد الجزائري خلال الفترة (1970ـ2011)
[Causality and cointegration Testing between Savings and Investment in the Algerian Economy during (1970-2011)]

Author

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  • SELLAMI, Ahmed
  • CHIKHI, Mohamed

Abstract

استهدفت الدراسة البحث في العلاقة بين معدل الادخار ومعدل الاستثمار في الاقتصاد الجزائري خلال الفترة (1970ـ2011). ولبيان فيما إذا كانت السلاسل الزمنية للمتغيرين مستقرة من عدمها، تطلب استخدام بعض الأدوات الإحصائية، فضلا عن اختبارات جذر الوحدة، كما تم تحديد رتبة تكامل كل متغير على حدة. وتبين أن المتغيرات متكاملة من الدرجة الأولى، وفي ضوء ذلك، تم استخدام اختبار التكامل المشترك لكل من طريقة انجل – جرانجر وطريقة جوهانسن، بالإضافة إلى استخدامنا لمنهجية جرانجر للسببية، وذلك للتحقق من وجود علاقة طويلة الأمد بينهما. واتضح من خلال التحليل عدم وجود علاقة توازنية بين الادخار والاستثمار في الاقتصاد الجزائري خلال الفترة المعنية بالدراسة. وكان التفسير المحتمل لذلك يرجع إلى طبيعة الاقتصاد الوطني الذي يعتمد بشدة على قطاع المحروقات كمصدر رئيسي للدخل الوطني والنقد الأجنبي، وعدم تنوع النشاط الاقتصادي و الصادرات من جهة، وإلى ضعف الطاقة الاستيعابية للاقتصاد الوطني من جهة أخرى. This Study aims to examine the relationship between the savings and the investment rates in the Algerian economy during the period (1970-2011). In order to test whether the two time series are stationary or not, we use some statistical tools, as well as unit root tests, We also determine the integration order of each variable separately. The two series seem integrated of same order. We use the Granger causality, Engle-Granger and Johensen cointegration tests to detect the existence of long-run relationship between these two variables. It turned out that the equilibrium relationship between the savings and investment in the Algerian economy during this period don't exist. It is due to the nature of the national economy, which is heavily based on hydrocarbons sector as a main source of the national income, the foreign exchange, the undiversified economic activity and exports and absorptive capacity of the national economy.

Suggested Citation

  • SELLAMI, Ahmed & CHIKHI, Mohamed, 2014. "اختبار العلاقة السببية والتكامل المشترك بين الادخار والاستثمار في الاقتصاد الجزائري خلال الفترة (1970ـ2011) [Causality and cointegration Testing between Savings and Investment in the Algerian Econo," MPRA Paper 76692, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:76692
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ادخار، استثمار، اقتصاد جزائري، تكامل مشترك، سببية جرانجر Savings; investment; Algerian economy; co-integration; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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