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Economics and How Obama Could Have Lost the 2016 Election Too

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  • Wu, Cheng

Abstract

During the 2016 U.S. election, many voters from democratic (‘blue wall’) states, which have voted consistently in the past elections for the democrats, suddenly moved back into the Republican fold. During this election, the primary economic issue was supposed to be NAFTA, both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump claimed it has been responsible for U.S. manufacturing job losses. So, what is the effect of trade on personal income and in particular manufacturing income and employment? Still, manufacturing losses are unlikely to explain democratic losses in rural areas, such as Wisconsin, where farm voters switched parties. What is the relationship between farm income and election result? Finally, are farmers Republican, Democrat or Independent? Or just pragmatic?

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Cheng, 2016. "Economics and How Obama Could Have Lost the 2016 Election Too," MPRA Paper 75107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75107
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75107/1/MPRA_paper_75107.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Wu, Cheng, 2016. "New Result in Consumption Theory: Change in Savings and Income Growth – Nineteen Years Later," MPRA Paper 69582, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    4. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng K. WU, 2017. "Does Clower’s Dual-Decision Hypothesis lead to the change in saving conclusion in Keynes’s General Theory?," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 552-560, December.
    2. Cheng K. WU, 2018. "Clower’s Dual-Decision Hypothesis is economics," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 83-88, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption; martingale; savings; growth; income; election; trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • Y10 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Data: Tables and Charts - - - Data: Tables and Charts
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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