IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/72967.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Linkages between Gold Futures Traded in Indian Commodity Futures Market and International Commodity Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Sinha, Pankaj
  • Mathur, Kritika

Abstract

Given that gold futures contracts are one of the most actively traded commodity futures in the Indian Commodity market, it is of crucial importance to study the price, return and volatility spillover behaviour of gold traded in the Indian commodity market with respect to the International commodity market. The current study tries to study the linkages in Gold futures which are traded on Indian commodity exchange – Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and International commodity exchange – New York Mercantile Exchange are analysed. The study attempts to demonstrate the linkages in price, return and volatility across the two markets for the precious metal through three models: (a) Price – Co-integration methodology and Error Correction Mechanism Model (ECM); (b) Return and Volatility – Modified GARCH model; (c) Return and Volatility – ARMA-GARCH in Mean model – Innovations Model. Empirical analysis indicates that there is a presence of a long run relationship between prices of Gold futures contracts traded in MCX and NYMEX. Apart from cointegration in prices, return and volatility spillovers between MCX and NYMEX are found to be significant and bi-directional.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2016. "Linkages between Gold Futures Traded in Indian Commodity Futures Market and International Commodity Futures Market," MPRA Paper 72967, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72967/1/MPRA_paper_72967.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    2. Dhillon, Upinder S. & Lasser, Dennis J. & Watanabe, Taiji, 1997. "Volatility, information, and double versus walrasian auction pricing in US and Japanese futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1045-1061, July.
    3. Pravakar Sahoo, 2008. "Impact of Proposed Commodity Transaction Tax," Working Papers id:1593, eSocialSciences.
    4. Kentaka Aruga & Shunsuke Managi, 2011. "Tests on price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1038-1046.
    5. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "The crude oil market and the gold market: Evidence for cointegration, causality and price discovery," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 168-177, September.
    6. Pravakar Sahoo & Rajiv Kumar, 2008. "Impact Of Proposed Commodity Transaction Tax On Futures Trading In India," Finance Working Papers 22239, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2005. "Cross-market linkages between U.S. and Japanese precious metals futures trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 107-124, April.
    8. Fung, Hung-Gay & Leung, Wai K & Xu, Xiaoqing Eleanor, 2003. "Information Flows between the U.S. and China Commodity Futures Trading," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 267-285, November.
    9. Aruga, Kentaka & Managi, Shunsuke, 2011. "Testing the international linkage in the platinum-group metal futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 339-345.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "Price, Return and Volatility Linkages of Base Metal Futures traded in India," MPRA Paper 47864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Tumala, Mohammed M. & Udomboso, Christopher G., 2016. "Volatility persistence and returns spillovers between oil and gold prices: Analysis before and after the global financial crisis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 273-281.
    3. Muneesh Kumar & Tarunika Jain Agrawal & Srishti Sehgal, 2017. "Domestic and International Information Linkages for Indian Commodities Market in the Pre- and Post-CTT Periods," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 16(2), pages 75-91, December.
    4. Julien Chevallier & Florian Ielpo, 2013. "Volatility spillovers in commodity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1211-1227, September.
    5. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo, 2015. "The role of outliers and oil price shocks on volatility of metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 139-150.
    6. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2016. "Extreme risk spillover effects in world gold markets and the global financial crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 55-77.
    7. Pravakar Sahoo & Rajiv Kumar, 2011. "The Impact Of Commodity Transaction Tax On Futures Trading In India: An Ex-Ante Analysis," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 56(03), pages 423-440.
    8. Aboura Sofiane & Chevallier Julien & Jammazi Rania & Tiwari Aviral Kumar, 2016. "The place of gold in the cross-market dependencies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(5), pages 567-586, December.
    9. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2016. "Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-46.
    10. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Tziogkidis, Panagiotis, 2017. "Volatility spillovers and cross-hedging between gold, oil and equities: Evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 440-453.
    11. Karanasos, Menelaos & Menla Ali, Faek & Margaronis, Zannis & Nath, Rajat, 2018. "Modelling time varying volatility spillovers and conditional correlations across commodity metal futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 246-256.
    12. Abricha, Amal & Ben Amar, Amine & Bellalah, Makram, 2024. "Commodity futures markets under stress and stress-free periods: Further insights from a quantile connectedness approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 229-246.
    13. Amar, Amine Ben & Goutte, Stéphane & Isleimeyyeh, Mohammad & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Commodity markets dynamics: What do cross-commodities over different nearest-to-maturities tell us?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    15. Akkoc, Ugur & Civcir, Irfan, 2019. "Dynamic linkages between strategic commodities and stock market in Turkey: Evidence from SVAR-DCC-GARCH model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 231-239.
    16. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    17. Nidhi Choudhary & Girish K. Nair & Harsh Purohit, 2015. "Volatility In Copper Prices In India," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, December.
    18. İrfan Civcir & Uğur Akkoç, 2021. "Dynamic volatility linkages and hedging between commodities and sectoral stock returns in Turkey: Evidence from SVAR‐cDCC‐GARCH model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 1978-1992, April.
    19. Hasan F. Baklaci & Ömür Süer & Tezer Yelkenci̇, 2018. "Price Linkages Among Emerging Gold Futures Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1345-1365, December.
    20. Junttila, Juha & Pesonen, Juho & Raatikainen, Juhani, 2018. "Commodity market based hedging against stock market risk in times of financial crisis: The case of crude oil and gold," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 255-280.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures; Gold; Spillover; Transaction costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:72967. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.