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A Theory of Deflation: Can Expectations Be Influenced by a Central Bank?

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  • Harashima, Taiji

Abstract

This paper examines how to reverse deflation to inflation. Once deflation takes root, it is not easy to reverse because of the zero lower bound in nominal interest rates. My model indicates that there are two steady states where both inflation/deflation (i.e., changes in prices) and real activity (i.e., quantities) remain unchanged: that is, there are inflationary and deflationary steady states. The model indicates that, to switch a deflationary steady state to an inflationary steady state, a central bank needs to influence the time preference rates of the government and the representative household. It is not easy, however, to do so, and the best way of switching deflation to inflation may be to wait for a lucky event (i.e., an exogenous shock).

Suggested Citation

  • Harashima, Taiji, 2016. "A Theory of Deflation: Can Expectations Be Influenced by a Central Bank?," MPRA Paper 71276, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71276
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Deflation; The zero lower bound; Monetary policies; Quantitative easing; Time preference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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