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Modeling and Applied Research in Sustainable Development

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  • Zeng, Xiangyu
  • Zeng, Zhezhao

Abstract

We develop an algebraic polynomial model to measure and compare the sustainability in 4 countries after studying existing sustainable development index systems. The model consists of three facets of indicators: natural resources reserve, environment carrying capacity and social welfare level. We use recursive least-squares method (RLS) to determine the parameters of the fitted model and apply this model to design a sustainable development plan for Tanzania. Considering the country profile and model testing results, the plan comprises of five programs: producing clean water, generating electricity, improving transport conditions, developing tourism industry and advancing medical and health services. Finally we predict the change of each indicator in the next two decades and compare the results under natural state, finding that the sustainability of Tanzania will increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Xiangyu & Zeng, Zhezhao, 2015. "Modeling and Applied Research in Sustainable Development," MPRA Paper 65895, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Aug 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65895
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Azar, Christian & Holmberg, John & Lindgren, Kristian, 1996. "Socio-ecological indicators for sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 89-112, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    recursive least-squares method (RLS); sustainability hierarchy; development project of Tanzania;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O22 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Project Analysis

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