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Catching Up: Developing Countries in Pursuit of Growth

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  • Popov, Vladimir

Abstract

This paper examines the trajectory of growth in the Global South. Before the 1500s all countries were roughly at the same level of development, but from the 1500s Western countries started to grow faster than the rest of the world and PPP GDP per capita by 1950 in the US, the richest Western nation, was nearly 5 times higher than the world average. Since 1950 this ratio stabilized – not only Western Europe and Japan improved their relative standing in per capita income versus the US, but also East Asia, South Asia and some developing countries in other regions started to bridge the gap with the West. After nearly half of millennium of growing economic divergence, the world seems to have entered the era of convergence. The factors behind these trends are analyzed; implications for the future and scenarios are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Popov, Vladimir, 2015. "Catching Up: Developing Countries in Pursuit of Growth," MPRA Paper 65878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65878
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vladimir Popov, 2007. "Life Cycle of the Centrally Planned Economy: Why Soviet Growth Rates Peaked in the 1950s," Studies in Economic Transition, in: Saul Estrin & Grzegorz W. Kolodko & Milica Uvalic (ed.), Transition and Beyond, chapter 2, pages 35-57, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    3. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
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    6. Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Institutions and Economic Performance - Getting Institutions Right," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(2), pages 10-15, October.
    7. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2009. "Aid and Growth: Have We Come Full Circle?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2009-05, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2005. "Appropriate Economic Policies at Different Stages of Development," MPRA Paper 20066, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Kevin Gray, 2013. "Aid and Development in Taiwan, South Korea, and South Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-085, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Schneider, Friedrich G., 2007. "Shadow Economies and Corruption All Over the World: New Estimates for 145 Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-66.
    11. Ian Morris, 2013. "The Measure of Civilization: How Social Development Decides the Fate of Nations," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9830.
    12. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2006. "Stages of Development, Economic Policies and a New World Economic Order," MPRA Paper 20055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Popov, Vladimir, 2011. "Developing new measurements of State institutional capacity," MPRA Paper 32389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Arndt Channing & Jones Sam & Tarp Finn, 2010. "Aid, Growth, and Development: Have We Come Full Circle?," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-29, December.
    15. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2006. "Эволюционная Теория Экономической Политики: Часть I: Опыт Быстрого Развития [An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Policy: Part I: The Experience of Fast Development]," MPRA Paper 22168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:ilo:ilowps:487650 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Vladimir Popov, 2009. "Lessons from the Transition Economies: Putting the Success Stories of the Postcommunist World into a Broader Perspective," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2009-15, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Popov, Vladimir, 2014. "Mixed Fortunes: An Economic History of China, Russia, and the West," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703631.
    19. Friedman, Eric & Johnson, Simon & Kaufmann, Daniel & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 2000. "Dodging the grabbing hand: the determinants of unofficial activity in 69 countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 459-493, June.
    20. Kwame Sundaram, Jomo. & Popov, Vladimir., 2015. "Income inequalities in perspective," ILO Working Papers 994876503402676, International Labour Organization.
    21. Nayyar, Deepak, 2013. "Catch Up: Developing Countries in the World Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199652983.
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    23. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "The Soviet Economic Decline," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(3), pages 341-371, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Popov, Vladimir, 2024. "Китайская Модель: Ретроспектива И Перспектива [The Chinese model: Retrospective and perspective]," MPRA Paper 121802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Popov, Vladimir, 2023. "Can China maintain high growth rates under the “dual-circulation” decoupling?," MPRA Paper 117953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Popov, Vladimir, 2024. "Сколько Прав Нужно Человеку: Взлет И Падение Либерализма [How many rights does a human need: The rise and fall of liberalism]," MPRA Paper 120479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Popov, Vladimir, 2021. "Why Europe looks so much like China: Big government and low income inequalities," MPRA Paper 106326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hristo Mavrov, 2019. "Catching-up Countries - Lessons for Bulgaria," Izvestia Journal of the Union of Scientists - Varna. Economic Sciences Series, Union of Scientists - Varna, Economic Sciences Section, vol. 8(2), pages 180-188, August.
    6. Popov, Vladimir, 2023. "US dollar is losing it position of a reserve currency: How the BRICS development bank can ensure the soft landing," MPRA Paper 118342, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    convergence; divergence; gap in per capita income between the West and the South; economic growth; institutional capacity of the state;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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