IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/65317.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Greece withdraws from Euro and runs on Bitcoin; April Fools Prank or Serious Possibility?

Author

Listed:
  • Bouoiyour, Jamal
  • Selmi, Refk

Abstract

This paper assesses whether the way in which the Greek crisis was communicated by media and social networking increase the debt deal uncertainty and the possibility of abandoning the euro in favor of Bitcoin. Through an improved frequency approach, we attempt to disentangle short-, medium- and long-run causality between Google Trends (search queries) and Twitter (social media) data related to the Greek crisis and Bitcoin unconditionally and conditioning upon relevant control variables. Our results unambiguously show a short-run unidirectional causality running from search queries and the number of tweets to the use of Bitcoin. These findings remain meaningful when a number of control variables are accounted for, while the cycle length becomes shorter. These results change substantially by the arrival of the left-wing Syriza party in power, on January 25th, 2015, with its radical approach to debt negotiations. The cycle becomes longer (short- and medium-run). Not surprisingly, doubts have increased as to whether Athens can appropriately settle its debt repayment obligations. This study indicates that Greece’s withdrawal from euro and running on Bitcoin is likely to be an April fool’s joke rather than serious possibility. It also proves a sharp distinguishability among Googlers and Twitters.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "Greece withdraws from Euro and runs on Bitcoin; April Fools Prank or Serious Possibility?," MPRA Paper 65317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65317
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65317/1/MPRA_paper_65317.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Theologos Dergiades & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "Tweets, Google trends, and sovereign spreads in the GIIPS," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 406-432.
    2. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    3. Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand, 2009. "Evidence of interdependence and contagion using a frequency domain framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 140-150, June.
    4. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2006. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis for Cointegrated Variables," Springer Books, in: Olaf Hübler & Jachim Frohn (ed.), Modern Econometric Analysis, chapter 6, pages 73-86, Springer.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    6. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June.
    7. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    8. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "What Does Bitcoin Look Like?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(2), pages 449-492, November.
    9. David Yermack, 2013. "Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal," NBER Working Papers 19747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "What Bitcoin Looks Like?," MPRA Paper 58091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Exploring the Driving Forces of the Bitcoin Exchange Rate Dynamics: An EGARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 89445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "Is the Internet Search Driving Oil Market? A Revisit through Time-Frequency approaches," MPRA Paper 66214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "Bitcoin Price: Is it really that New Round of Volatility can be on way?," MPRA Paper 65580, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral, 2014. "Is Bitcoin business income or speculative bubble? Unconditional vs. conditional frequency domain analysis," MPRA Paper 59595, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2016. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. I," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 44, pages 5-24.
    3. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "Is the Internet Search Driving Oil Market? A Revisit through Time-Frequency approaches," MPRA Paper 66214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fantazzini, Dean & Nigmatullin, Erik & Sukhanovskaya, Vera & Ivliev, Sergey, 2017. "Everything you always wanted to know about bitcoin modelling but were afraid to ask. Part 2," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 45, pages 5-28.
    5. Ciner, Cetin, 2011. "Eurocurrency interest rate linkages: A frequency domain analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 498-505, October.
    6. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Lahiani, Amine & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Testing for asymmetric nonlinear short- and long-run relationships between bitcoin, aggregate commodity and gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 224-235.
    7. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    8. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "The Bitcoin price formation: Beyond the fundamental sources," Working Papers hal-01548710, HAL.
    9. Gradojevic, Nikola & Lento, Camillo, 2015. "Multiscale analysis of foreign exchange order flows and technical trading profitability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 156-165.
    10. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2017. "Are Trump and Bitcoin Good Partners?," Working Papers hal-01480031, HAL.
    11. Saffet Akdag & Ömer İskenderoglu & Andrew Adewale Alola, 2020. "The volatility spillover effects among risk appetite indexes: insight from the VIX and the rise," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 49-65, April.
    12. Saffet Akdağ & İlker Kiliç & Hakan Yildirim, 2019. "Does VIX scare stocks of tourism companies?," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 215-232, December.
    13. Mensi, Walid & Ur Rehman, Mobeen & Maitra, Debasish & Hamed Al-Yahyaee, Khamis & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2020. "Does bitcoin co-move and share risk with Sukuk and world and regional Islamic stock markets? Evidence using a time-frequency approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    14. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2015. "What Does Bitcoin Look Like?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(2), pages 449-492, November.
    15. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "The nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate: Better paths via unconditional vs conditional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 54-66.
    16. Ziaul Haque Munim & Mohammad Hassan Shakil & Ilan Alon, 2019. "Next-Day Bitcoin Price Forecast," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    17. Zhou, Siwen, 2018. "Exploring the Driving Forces of the Bitcoin Exchange Rate Dynamics: An EGARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 89445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2019. "Spillover Risks on Cryptocurrency Markets: A Look from VAR-SVAR Granger Causality and Student’s-t Copulas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, April.
    19. Frode Kjærland & Aras Khazal & Erlend A. Krogstad & Frans B. G. Nordstrøm & Are Oust, 2018. "An Analysis of Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-18, October.
    20. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "Bitcoin Price: Is it really that New Round of Volatility can be on way?," MPRA Paper 65580, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek crisis; Social media; Google Trends; Bitcoin; frequency domain causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:65317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.