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Evaluating Economic Warfare: Lessons from Efforts to Suppress the Afghan Opium Trade

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  • Clemens, Jeffrey

Abstract

In the mid-2000s, U.S. anti-opium policy intensified with a goal of reducing the resources available to Afghan insurgents. To achieve this objective, I show that opium suppression efforts must accurately distinguish between insurgent and non-insurgent suppliers. The required level of accuracy will be particularly high if demand for opium is inelastic and if the insurgents’ initial market share is large. Empirically, I show that demand for Afghan opium is relatively inelastic, that the market share of Taliban-heavy areas is large, and that enforcement has primarily impacted non-Taliban territory. Consequently, anti-opium efforts have significantly increased the drug-trade resources flowing to the Taliban.

Suggested Citation

  • Clemens, Jeffrey, 2013. "Evaluating Economic Warfare: Lessons from Efforts to Suppress the Afghan Opium Trade," MPRA Paper 57890, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57890
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    4. Reza Oladi & John Gilbert, 2015. "International Narcotics Trade, Foreign Aid, And Enforcement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(3), pages 1630-1646, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National Security; Drug Control Policy; Policy Evaluation; Economics of Crime; Economics of Insurgency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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