IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/56866.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Uncertainty Affect Investment Expenditure? A Comment

Author

Listed:
  • Cantillo, Andres

Abstract

This is a theoretic and econometric assessment of Peter Ferderer’s seminal paper published in the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics with the same title in 1993. New data shows that high forecaster discords coincide with a decrease in Investment expenditure. Specifically, the forecaster discord about the aggregate level of employment explains an important part of the fluctuations in investment. Even if the forecaster discords are included in models based on Tobin’s q, they play an important role.

Suggested Citation

  • Cantillo, Andres, 2011. "Does Uncertainty Affect Investment Expenditure? A Comment," MPRA Paper 56866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56866
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56866/1/MPRA_paper_56866.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Peter Ferderer, 1993. "Does Uncertainty Affect Investment Spending?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, September.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
    3. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    4. Peter K. Clark, 1979. "Investment in the 1970s: Theory, Performance, and Prediction," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 73-124.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Atanda Mustapha Saidi, 2017. "Working Paper 273 - Stock (Mis)pricing and investment dynamics in Africa," Working Paper Series 2390, African Development Bank.
    2. Gregory R. Duffee & Stephen D. Prowse, "undated". "What's Good for GM...? Using Auto Industry Stock Returns to Forecast Business Cycles and Test the Q-Theory of Investment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
    3. Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Predictive Ability of Competing Models for South Africa’s Fixed Business Non- Residential Investment Spending," Working Papers 201229, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
    5. F Alexandre & P Bacao, 2006. "Investment and Non-fundamental Movements in Asset Prices: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 65-95, March.
    6. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. "With a Bang, not a Whimper: Pricking Germany's “Stock Market Bubble” in 1927 and the Slide into Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 65-99, March.
    7. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    8. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "The Dynamic Demand for Capital and Labor," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 513-542.
    9. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain," Research Discussion Papers 32/2016, Bank of Finland.
    10. Branston, Christopher B. & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2004. "Investment and share prices: fundamental versus speculative components," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, August.
    11. Chiarella, C. & Di Guilmi, C., 2017. "Monetary Policy And Debt Deflation: Some Computational Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 214-242, January.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Dow, James & Gorton, Gary, 1997. "Stock Market Efficiency and Economic Efficiency: Is There a Connection?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1087-1129, July.
    14. Ogawa, Kazuo & Suzuki, Kazuyuki, 2008. "Information, investment, and the stock market: A study of investment revision data of Japanese manufacturing industries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 663-676, December.
    15. Fernando Alexandre, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Investment and Non-Fundamental Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 6/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    16. Cummins, Jason G. & Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 1996. "Tax reforms and investment: A cross-country comparison," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1-2), pages 237-273, October.
    17. Durnev, Art & Mangen, Claudine, 2020. "The spillover effects of MD&A disclosures for real investment: The role of industry competition," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1).
    18. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2002. "Time-varying risk premia and the cost of capital: An alternative implication of the Q theory of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 31-66, January.
    19. Quynh Trang Phan & Poomthan Rangkakulnuwat, 2022. "How price informativeness affects the sensitivity of investment-to-stock price in Vietnamese listed firms," Afro-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 28-61.
    20. Stavros Degiannakis, 2022. "Stock market as a nowcasting indicator for real investment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 911-919, August.
    21. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomics; Uncertainty; Expectations.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.