IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/52540.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

9/56 Year Cycle: Financial Panics

Author

Listed:
  • McMinn, David

Abstract

The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid repeating the intervals 56 years vertically (called sequences) and 9 years horizontally (called subcycles). Since 1760, US and Western European financial panics have clustered with significance in this grid pattern. Seasonality was also observed within the 56 year sequences and within the 18/56 year grids. Artifact subcycles were also apparent within this cycle as shown by the 20 year subcycles. The 9/56 year pattern can be intimately linked to Moon – Sun cycles and thus it is hypothesized that lunisolar tidal harmonics activated financial panics within the 9/56 year grid.

Suggested Citation

  • McMinn, David, 1986. "9/56 Year Cycle: Financial Panics," MPRA Paper 52540, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52540
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52540/1/MPRA_paper_52540.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/52541/1/MPRA_paper_52540.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jaremski, Matthew, 2018. "The (dis)advantages of clearinghouses before the Fed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 435-458.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 50-55, May.
    3. Gorton, Gary & Huang, Lixin, 2006. "Bank panics and the endogeneity of central banking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1613-1629, October.
    4. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Charles Calomiris, 2000. "Comment on Bordo and Kroszner," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 173-177, December.
    6. Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Marey, Philip S., 2010. "Did the ECB respond to the stock market before the crisis?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 303-322, May.
    7. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    8. Lawrence Sáez & Xianwen Shi, 2004. "Liquidity Pools, Risk Sharing, and Financial Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 5-23, February.
    9. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2010. "Liquidity, Bank Runs, and Bailouts: Spillover Effects During the Northern Rock Episode," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 83-98, June.
    10. McMinn, David, 2013. "9/56 Year Cycle: Panics, Earthquakes, Hurricanes and Volcanoes," MPRA Paper 51693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S, 1995. "The Macroeconomics of the Great Depression: A Comparative Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 1-28, February.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & David Leblang, 2003. "Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 205-224.
    13. Thorsten V. Koppl & James MacGee, 2001. "Limited enforcement and efficient interbank arrangements," Working Papers 608, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Jeffrey A. Miron & Natalia Rigol, 2013. "Bank Failures and Output During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 19418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2014. "Counterparty Risk and the Establishment of the New York Stock Exchange Clearinghouse," NBER Working Papers 20459, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Schnabel, Isabel, 2002. "The Great Banks` Depression - Deposit Withdrawals in the German Crisis of 1931," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-11, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    17. Charles W. Calomiris & Charles M. Kahn, 1996. "The efficiency of self-regulated payments systems: learning from the Suffolk System," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 766-803.
    18. Richard S. Grossman & Christopher M. Meissner, 2010. "International aspects of the Great Depression and the crisis of 2007: similarities, differences, and lessons," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 318-338, Autumn.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    20. Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan-Leung & Goyal, Vidhan K., 1999. "Bank monitoring and the maturity structure of Japanese corporate debt issues," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 229-249, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    9/56 year cycle; financial panics; seasonality; artifact subcycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.