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Nüfus Yapısındaki Değişimlerin Uzun Dönem Konut Talebi Üzerindeki Etkileri
[The Effects of Demographic Changes on the Long Term Housing Demand in Turkey]

Author

Listed:
  • ARSLAN, Yavuz
  • CERİTOĞLU, Evren
  • KANIK, Birol

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the effects of age structure dynamics of population on the housing demand in Turkey. The critical question is how the housing demand moves in the environment of positive population growth with declining rate and aging population. We use TurkStat Household Budget Survey to determine the link between household housing demand and household age cohorts. We obtain housing demand for each age cohorts and long term housing demand for Turkey by utilizing TurkStat population forecasts. Estimation results indicate that age structure of population has a notable effect on the growth of housing demand besides population growth. The results show housing demand will increase 1.48 percent annually on average from 2009 to 2050 where 1.08 percent of the increase will be contributed by population growth and the rest of 0.40 percent will be derived by the change in age structure of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • ARSLAN, Yavuz & CERİTOĞLU, Evren & KANIK, Birol, 2013. "Nüfus Yapısındaki Değişimlerin Uzun Dönem Konut Talebi Üzerindeki Etkileri [The Effects of Demographic Changes on the Long Term Housing Demand in Turkey]," MPRA Paper 52013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Dec 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January.
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    6. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing demand; Demographics; Home ownership;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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