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Evolutionary Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A Hybrid System for Crisis Management and Political Decision Making

Author

Listed:
  • Andreou, A. S.
  • Mateou, N. H.
  • Zombanakis, George A.

Abstract

This paper proposes an extension of Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (CNFCMs) used in crisis management and decision-making, aiming at increasing their reliability. The objective of the Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Map (GECNFCM) as it is introduced here is to overcome the main weakness of CNFCMs, which lies with the recalculation of the weights corresponding to each concept every time a new strategy is adopted. The problem is overcome through the introduction of a Genetic Algorithm (GA), which produces a set of solutions and new weights following a strategy change. The GA concepts are very appealing since they offer the optimal solution without a problem-solving strategy, once the requirements are defined. It is interesting to point out that the hybrid approach is reflected in both the implementation of the GA and in the methodology applied for solving the problem. In fact, the reasoning behind this hybrid methodology is to use it for obtaining the optimal values of the weights corresponding to the variables of the model rather than the optimal values of the variables themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, A. S. & Mateou, N. H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Evolutionary Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A Hybrid System for Crisis Management and Political Decision Making," MPRA Paper 51482, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Feb 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51482
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mateou, N. H. & Andreou, A. S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2004. "Fuzzification and Defuzzification Process in Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (GEFCMs)," MPRA Paper 51376, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2004.
    2. ANDREOU, A.S. & MATEOU, N.H & Zombanakis, George A., 2004. "Optimization in Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Supporting Decision-Making: The Limit Cycle Case," MPRA Paper 51378, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2004.
    3. Andreou, Andreas S. & Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "The Cyprus Puzzle and the Greek – Turkish Arms Race," MPRA Paper 78749, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    4. Bąk Iwona & Cheba Katarzyna, 2020. "Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and their Application in the Economic Sciences," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 24(3), pages 20-36, September.
    5. Magdalena Ziolo & Beata Zofia Filipiak & Iwona Bąk & Katarzyna Cheba, 2019. "How to Design More Sustainable Financial Systems: The Roles of Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors in the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-34, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuzzy Systems Crisis Management Decision Making;

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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