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Assessing the forecasting power of the leading composite index in Macedonia

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  • Petreski, Marjan

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the forecasting power of the leading composite index of Macedonia. The leading index is a weighted index of indicators which are considered to lead the economic cycle. The main dynamic model in which, first, GDP is represented as autoregressive process, and then lags of the leading index are added, is used to measure the forecasting error behavior with the addition of the leading index and with the imposition of larger time span in the model. The main finding is that the inclusion of the leading index in the model reduces the forecasting error. The forecasting time of the leading composite index in Macedonia is found to be between one and two quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Petreski, Marjan, 2013. "Assessing the forecasting power of the leading composite index in Macedonia," MPRA Paper 49433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49433
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic cycle; leading index; root mean squared forecasting error; Macedonia; distributed lags model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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