IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/479.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction

Author

Listed:
  • Bazhanov, Andrei
  • Vyscrebentsev, Alexei

Abstract

Our approach is based on the use of the Durbin-Watson statistic and other statistical criteria for the specification of the number of the nonlinear summands in the empirical model of M.K. Hubbert. Given alternate criteria we compare the dynamics of extraction over recent years for the USA and Russia. We compare simulated dynamics to data on recoverable oil reserves for recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Bazhanov, Andrei & Vyscrebentsev, Alexei, 2005. "The adequacy of Hubbert’s curves for the forecasting of the rates of oil extraction," MPRA Paper 479, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:479
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/479/1/MPRA_paper_479.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15117/1/MPRA_paper_15117.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth in a resource-based economy: the extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 12350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth: The extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 9911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andreeva, Anastasiya & Bazhanov, Andrei, 2007. "Сценарии Перехода К Устойчивым Темпам Добычи Нефти В России [Scenarios of transition to sustainable oil extraction in Russia]," MPRA Paper 5343, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Correa Restrepo, 2015. "Una revisión analítica sobre el papel de la tierra en la teoría económica de David Ricardo," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 0(1), pages 103-114, June.
    2. Christian Groth & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas Steger, 2006. "Rethinking the Concept of Long-Run Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 1701, CESifo.
    3. Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh, 1999. "Materials, Capital, Direct/Indirect Substitution, and Mass Balance Production Functions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 75(4), pages 547-561.
    4. Cabeza Gutes, Maite, 1996. "The concept of weak sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 147-156, June.
    5. Seyhan, Demet & Weikard, Hans-Peter & van Ierland, Ekko, 2012. "An economic model of long-term phosphorus extraction and recycling," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-108.
    6. Cairns, Robert D. & Martinet, Vincent, 2021. "Growth and long-run sustainability," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 381-402, August.
    7. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2011. "Investment and current utility change in dynamically inefficient economies," MPRA Paper 35487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Mahsa Jahandideh, 2020. "Resource‐driven victory," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(4), pages 877-898, August.
    9. Basarab Gogoneaţă, 2010. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Commerce And Sustainable Development In Baltic And Central And Eastern European Countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 36-51, February.
    10. Benchekroun, H. & Ray Chaudhuri, A., 2010. "'The Voracity Effect' and Climate Change : The Impact of Clean Technologies," Discussion Paper 2010-97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 28-44, January.
    12. Schilling, Markus & Chiang, Lichun, 2011. "The effect of natural resources on a sustainable development policy: The approach of non-sustainable externalities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 990-998, February.
    13. Sandbu, Martin E., 2006. "Natural wealth accounts: A proposal for alleviating the natural resource curse," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1153-1170, July.
    14. Purnamita Dasgupta, 2008. "Measuring Sustainability with Macroeconomic Data for India," Working Papers id:1574, eSocialSciences.
    15. Kirk Hamilton & Cees Withagen, 2007. "Savings growth and the path of utility," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 703-713, May.
    16. Gerlagh, Reyer & Dellink, Rob & Hofkes, Marjan & Verbruggen, Harmen, 2002. "A measure of sustainable national income for the Netherlands," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 157-174, April.
    17. Clive L Spash, 1994. "Intergenerational Modelling of the Greenhouse Effect," Working Papers Series 94/3, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    18. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    19. Dietz, Simon & Neumayer, Eric, 2007. "Weak and strong sustainability in the SEEA: Concepts and measurement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 617-626, March.
    20. Sadrieh, A., 2003. "Equity versus Warm Glow in Intergenerational Giving," Other publications TiSEM 89f19483-3c73-4838-854f-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hubbert’s curve; Durbin-Watson statistic;

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.