IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/4760.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inventory and the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Lai, Richard

Abstract

How does the stock market affect inventory decisions? The efficient markets view is that low stock price means poor fundamentals, a higher cost of capital, and lower inventory. Normatively, firms should obtain their cost of capital from an efficient markets model of stock prices. My study is motivated by the growing body of evidence that the stock market is not efficient and can temporarily mis-value firms. I report evidence that the market's behavioral component explains firms' inventory as much as its fundamentals component. I further test three possibilities for how the behavioral component works. The first is a financing channel. When the market over-values firms, firms can get cheaper financing and increase inventory. The second is dissipation. When the market mis-values firms, firms are less disciplined and let inventories rise. The third is catering. When the market discounts high-inventory firms, firms decrease inventory, and vice versa. I report evidence that weakly supports financing, rejects dissipation and strongly supports catering. The findings suggest that we need to find new ways of calculating the cost of capital for operations models. They could begin to form the basis of a more empirically accurate account of how inventory decisions are affected by financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Lai, Richard, 2006. "Inventory and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 4760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4760
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4760/1/MPRA_paper_4760.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stein, Jeremy C, 1988. "Takeover Threats and Managerial Myopia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 61-80, February.
    2. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    3. Fischer, Stanley & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-108, January.
    4. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    5. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    6. Boudreaux, Kenneth J, 1973. "Discounts and Premiums on Closed-End Mutual Funds: A Study in Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 515-522, May.
    7. Baker, George P, 1992. "Incentive Contracts and Performance Measurement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 598-614, June.
    8. Narayanan, M P, 1985. "Managerial Incentives for Short-term Results," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(5), pages 1469-1484, December.
    9. Paul Gompers & Joy Ishii & Andrew Metrick, 2003. "Corporate Governance and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 107-156.
    10. Vishal Gaur & Marshall L. Fisher & Ananth Raman, 2005. "An Econometric Analysis of Inventory Turnover Performance in Retail Services," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 181-194, February.
    11. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 2006. "Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1605-1643, August.
    12. Anil K Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 565-592.
    13. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    14. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    15. Roll, Richard, 1983. "On computing mean returns and the small firm premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 371-386, November.
    16. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    17. Zweig, Martin E, 1973. "An Investor Expectations Stock Price Predictive Model Using Closed-End Fund Premiums," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 67-78, March.
    18. T. M. Whitin, 1952. "Inventory Control in Theory and Practice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 502-521.
    19. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-273, March.
    20. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    21. Kevin B. Hendricks & Vinod R. Singhal, 2005. "Association Between Supply Chain Glitches and Operating Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(5), pages 695-711, May.
    22. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    23. Bengt Holmström, 1999. "Managerial Incentive Problems: A Dynamic Perspective," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(1), pages 169-182.
    24. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    25. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1125-1165 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. William C. Brainard & James Tobin, 1968. "Pitfalls in Financial Model-Building," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    27. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
    28. Malcolm Baker & Richard S. Ruback & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    30. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
    31. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Jun & Lu, Wei & Zhou, Chunhui, 2014. "The immediate impact of purchasing/sales contract announcements on the market value of firms: An empirical study in China," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 169-179.
    2. Lai, Richard, 2006. "Does Public Infrastructure Reduce Private Inventory?," MPRA Paper 4756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Elsayed, Khaled & Wahba, Hayam, 2013. "Reinvestigating the relationship between ownership structure and inventory management: A corporate governanceperspective," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 207-218.
    4. Chad R. Larson & Danko Turcic & Fuqiang Zhang, 2015. "An Empirical Investigation of Dynamic Ordering Policies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2118-2138, September.
    5. Tribó, Josep A., 2009. "Firms' stock market flotation: Effects on inventory policy," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 10-18, March.
    6. Sergey Rumyantsev & Serguei Netessine, 2007. "What Can Be Learned from Classical Inventory Models? A Cross-Industry Exploratory Investigation," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 409-429, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stein, Jeremy C., 2003. "Agency, information and corporate investment," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 111-165, Elsevier.
    2. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    3. anonymous, 2006. "The MSOM Society Student Paper Competition: Extended Abstracts of 2005 Winners," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 8(1), pages 98-117.
    4. Sapienza, Paola & Polk, Christopher, 2003. "The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2006. "On the Accuracy of Different Measures of Q," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 35(3), Autumn.
    6. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2011. "Fundamentals, Misvaluation, and Business Investment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1423-1442, October.
    7. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    8. Samuel, Cherian, 1996. "Stock market and investment : the signaling role of the market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1612, The World Bank.
    9. Franzoni, Francesco, 2009. "Underinvestment vs. overinvestment: Evidence from price reactions to pension contributions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 491-518, June.
    10. Germán Gutiérrez & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Investmentless Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 89-190.
    11. Hennessy, Christopher A. & Levy, Amnon & Whited, Toni M., 2007. "Testing Q theory with financing frictions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 691-717, March.
    12. Richard Kum-yew Lai, 2005. "Inventory Signals," Microeconomics 0509001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    14. Mortal, Sandra C. & Schill, Michael J., 2018. "The role of firm investment in momentum and reversal," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 255-278.
    15. Rajkovic, Tijana, 2020. "Lead independent directors and investment efficiency," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Bhandari, Avishek & Javakhadze, David, 2017. "Corporate social responsibility and capital allocation efficiency," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 354-377.
    17. William M. Gentry & Christopher J. Mayer, 2003. "What Can We Learn About the Sensitivity of Investment to Stock Prices with a Better Measure of Tobin's q?," Department of Economics Working Papers 2003-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    18. Keming Li, 2021. "The effect of option trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, December.
    19. Caggese, Andrea, 2007. "Testing financing constraints on firm investment using variable capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 683-723, December.
    20. Paul Gompers & Joy Ishii & Andrew Metrick, 2003. "Corporate Governance and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 107-156.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inventory; stock market; sentiment; operations management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Production Management
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4760. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.