IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/4162.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock Prices, Real Sector and the Causal Analysis: The Case of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Husain, Fazal

Abstract

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between stock prices and the variables representing the real sector of the Pakistani economy.Using annual data from 1959/60 to 2004/05, examining the stochastic properties of the variables used in the analysis, and taking care of the shifts in the series due to the start of the economic liberalization program in the early 1990s, the paper investigates the causal relations between stock prices and variables like real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), real consumption expenditure, and real investment spending. The analysis indicates the presence of a long run relationship between stock prices and the real sector variables. Regarding the cause and effect relationship, the analysis indicates a one-way causation from the real sector to stock prices implying that the stock market in Pakistan is still not that developed to influence the real sector of the economy. Hence the market cannot be characterized as the leading indicator of the economic activity in Pakistan

Suggested Citation

  • Husain, Fazal, 2006. "Stock Prices, Real Sector and the Causal Analysis: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 4162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4162
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/4162/1/MPRA_paper_4162.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Bosworth, 1975. "The Stock Market and the Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 257-300.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nadeem Ul Haque & Musleh-ud Din & Lubna Hasan, 2007. "Research at PIDE: Key Messages," PIDE Books, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, number 2007:2.
    2. Riadh El abed, 2017. "Exploring the nexus between Stock prices and Macroeconomic shocks: Panel VAR approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 2053-2066.
    3. Javed Iqbal, 2012. "Stock Market in Pakistan," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 11(1), pages 61-91, April.
    4. Riadh El ABED & Amna ZARDOUB, 2019. "Exploring the nexus between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns in Germany: An ARDL Co-integration approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 139-148, Summer.
    5. Chandrashekar Raghutla & Krishna Reddy Chittedi, 2021. "Financial development, real sector and economic growth: Evidence from emerging market economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 6156-6167, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fischer, Stanley & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 57-108, January.
    2. Ranjanendra Narayan Nag & Sayan Baksi & Sayantan Bandhu Majumder, 2015. "Capital Flows, Asset Prices and Output in Emerging Market Economies," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 50(1), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Engelbert Stockhammer & Erik Bengtsson, 2020. "Financial effects in historic consumption and investment functions," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 304-326, May.
    4. Foresti, Pasquale, 2006. "Testing for Granger causality between stock prices and economic growth," MPRA Paper 2962, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    5. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    6. Branston, Christopher B. & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2004. "Investment and share prices: fundamental versus speculative components," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, August.
    7. George B. Tawadros & Imad A. Moosa, 2022. "A Structural Time Series Analysis of the Effect of Quantitative Easing on Stock Prices," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Fernando Alexandre, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Investment and Non-Fundamental Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 6/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Murillo Campello & Rafael P. Ribas & Albert Y. Wang, 2014. "Is the Stock Market Just a Side Show? Evidence from a Structural Reform," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1-2), pages 1-38.
    10. Samuel, Cherian, 1996. "Stock market and investment : the signaling role of the market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1612, The World Bank.
    11. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010. "Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.
    12. Tuomas Peltonen & Ricardo Sousa & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2012. "Investment in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 97-119, August.
    13. Ndikumana, Leonce, 2005. "Financial development, financial structure, and domestic investment: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 651-673, June.
    14. McMillan, David G., 2013. "Consumption and stock prices: Evidence from a small international panel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-88.
    15. Shayan Halder, 2022. "FinBERT-LSTM: Deep Learning based stock price prediction using News Sentiment Analysis," Papers 2211.07392, arXiv.org.
    16. Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2003. "When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(3), pages 969-1005.
    17. Jean-michel Sahut & Medhi Mili & Frédéric Teulon, 2012. "What is the linkage between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2464-2480.
    18. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-455, October.
    19. Christis Hassapis, 2003. "Financial variables and real activity in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 421-442, May.
    20. Reinhold Heinlein & Scott M. R. Mahadeo, 2023. "Oil and US stock market shocks: Implications for Canadian equities," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 247-287, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Prices; Causal Relations; Real Sector; Economic Activity; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.