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Pressupostos de Eficiência de Mercado: um estudo empírico na Bovespa
[Assumptions of Market Efficiency: an empirical analysis at Bovespa/Brazil]

Author

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  • Lucena, Pierre
  • Fugueiredo, Antonio Carlos

Abstract

This paper is about one of the most argued subjects in the financial theory: the forecast of future returns. We work with the model of multifactor of Fama and French, and the regression presented for Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2002), that work with the size of the company and the book-to-value. We present here also an ample analysis of the monthly autocorrelations between the most negotiated shares in Brazil from 1995. The joined results suggest that the analysis of multifactors of Fama and French shows sufficiently useful and with variables like size and book-to value being significant. In relation to the autocorrelations, in the majority of the cases if they had not shown individually significant, what it suggests efficiency in the weak form? The results suggest that the model presented by Grinblatt and Moskowitz (2002) won´t show good results, in the first moment, strategy of abnormal returns only with time series data.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucena, Pierre & Fugueiredo, Antonio Carlos, 2004. "Pressupostos de Eficiência de Mercado: um estudo empírico na Bovespa [Assumptions of Market Efficiency: an empirical analysis at Bovespa/Brazil]," MPRA Paper 40884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40884
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40884/1/MPRA_paper_40884.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1992. "The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1977-1984, December.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    4. Tobias J. Moskowitz & Mark Grinblatt, 2002. "What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm259, Yale School of Management.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. "Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    8. Mark Grinblatt & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2002. "What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?," NBER Working Papers 8744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucena, Pierre & Figueiredo, Antonio Carlos & Lachtermacher, Gerson, 2008. "Critérios de formação de carteiras de ativos através de hierarchical clusters [Criteria of portfolio formation of stocks through hierarchical clusters]," MPRA Paper 38105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lucena, Pierre & Saturnino, Odilon & Araújo, Joseanny & Figueiredo, Antonio Carlos, 2010. "Eficácia do Uso da Estratégia de Investimento em Ações com Baixo Múltiplo Preço/Valor Patrimonial (PVPA) no Brasil [Effectiveness Of The Use Of Investment Strategy In Shares With Low Multiple Price," MPRA Paper 38121, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BOVESPA; Multifactor Models; autocorrelation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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