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Gun laws and sudden death: Did the Australian firearms legislation of 1996 make a difference?

Author

Listed:
  • Baker, J
  • McPhedran, S

Abstract

Mass murders in Dunblane, United Kingdom, and Port Arthur, Australia, provoked rapid responses from the governments of both countries. Major changes to Australian laws resulted in a controversial buy-back of longarms and tighter legislation. The Australian situation enables evaluation of the effect of a national buy-back, accompanied by tightened legislation in a country with relatively secure borders. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to predict future values of the time series for homicide, suicide and accidental death before and after the 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA). When compared with observed values, firearm suicide was the only parameter the NFA may have influenced, although societal factors could also have influenced observed changes. The findings have profound implications for future firearm legislation policy direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Baker, J & McPhedran, S, 2007. "Gun laws and sudden death: Did the Australian firearms legislation of 1996 make a difference?," MPRA Paper 40534, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:40534
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/40534/1/MPRA_paper_40534.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guerette, Rob T. & Stenius, Vanja M.K. & McGloin, Jean M., 2005. "Understanding offense specialization and versatility: A reapplication of the rational choice perspective," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 77-87.
    2. Chang, J. & Berg, C.J. & Saltzman, L.E. & Herndon, J., 2005. "Homicide: A leading cause of injury deaths among pregnant and postpartum women in the United States, 1991-1999," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 95(3), pages 471-477.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matsubayashi, Tetsuya & Ueda, Michiko, 2011. "The effect of national suicide prevention programs on suicide rates in 21 OECD nations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(9), pages 1395-1400.
    2. Patrick Duenow & Luke B. Connelly, 2024. "The effect of gun buy‐back law reform on homicides and suicides in Australia," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 248-279, February.
    3. Wang‐Sheng Lee & Sandy Suardi, 2010. "The Australian Firearms Buyback And Its Effect On Gun Deaths," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(1), pages 65-79, January.
    4. Taylor, Benjamin & Li, Jing, 2015. "Do fewer guns lead to less crime? Evidence from Australia," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-78.
    5. McPhedran, Samara & Baker, Jeanine, 2008. "Recent Australian suicide trends for males and females at the national level: Has the rate of decline differed?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 350-358, September.
    6. Finn Gjertsen & Antoon Leenaars & Margarete E. Vollrath, 2013. "Mixed Impact of Firearms Restrictions on Fatal Firearm Injuries in Males: A National Observational Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firearms; legislation; homicide; suicide;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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