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Crimonometric Analysis: Testing the Deterrence Hypothesis in Sabah

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  • Lau, Evan
  • Hamzah, Siti Nur Zahara

Abstract

This paper empirically estimates disaggregated crime categories for Sabah from 1968 to 2006. The criminometric analysis incorporated in a within sample analysis of cointegration and error correction framework and the beyond sample analysis using the decompositions of variance. Our findings suggest that any support for the deterrence hypothesis is sensitive to the inclusion of prison or courts related variables. In the long run we find that only robbery is exogenous in all crime model tested however, the beyond sample estimation proves that in longer time period of approximately 50 years the post-sample dynamic VDCs imply that a substantial portion of the variance of the forecast error of these crime are explained by their explanatory variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Lau, Evan & Hamzah, Siti Nur Zahara, 2012. "Crimonometric Analysis: Testing the Deterrence Hypothesis in Sabah," MPRA Paper 39297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39297
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Glenn Withers, 1984. "Crime, Punishment and Deterrence in Australia: An Empirical Investigation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 60(2), pages 176-185, June.
    4. Kelaher, Richard & Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2011. "Crime and Punishment Revisited," MPRA Paper 28213, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Muzafar Shah Habibullah & A.H. Baharom, 2009. "Crime and economic conditions in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(11), pages 1071-1081, September.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric; crime; Sabah; cointegration; VECM; VDC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • A13 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Social Values
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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