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SAFTA and the South Asian Countries: Quantitative Assessments of Potential Implications

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  • Raihan, Selim

Abstract

This paper has examined the implications of SAFTA for the South Asian countries. In doing so it has reviewed the pattern of intra-regional trade in South Asia. The paper has reviewed a number of studies which conducted qualitative and quantitative assessments of SAFTA. Using the global general equilibrium model the paper has also explored the welfare implications of tariff liberalisation under SAFTA and increased trade facilitation in South Asia. The simulation results suggest that the gains from trade facilitation in South Asia are much higher than the gains from mere reduction in tariff in goods. Therefore, in order to make SAFTA effective, trade liberalization is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient one. Utmost priority should be given to developing trade infrastructure facilities (hardware) and trade facilitation (software).

Suggested Citation

  • Raihan, Selim, 2012. "SAFTA and the South Asian Countries: Quantitative Assessments of Potential Implications," MPRA Paper 37884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37884
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hassan, M. Kabir, 2001. "Is SAARC a viable economic block? evidence from gravity model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 263-290.
    2. Samantak Das & Sanjib Pohit, 2006. "Quantifying Transport, Regulatory and Other Costs of Indian Overland Exports to Bangladesh," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9), pages 1227-1242, September.
    3. Raihan, Selim, 2011. "Economic Corridors in South Asia: Exploring the Benefits of Market Access and Trade Facilitation," MPRA Paper 37883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    5. Mustafizur Rahman & Wasel Bin Shadat & Narayan Chandra Das, 2006. "Trade Potential in SAFTA: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model," CPD Working Paper 61, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    6. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    7. John Whalley, 1998. "Why Do Countries Seek Regional Trade Agreements?," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 63-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sanjib Pohit & Nisha Taneja, 2003. "India's Informal Trade with Bangladesh: A Qualitative Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1187-1214, August.
    9. Mr. Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan, 2005. "Preferential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 2005/149, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Raihan, Selim & Razzaque, Mohammad A, 2007. "WTO and regional trade negotiation outcomes: quantitative assessments of potential implications on Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 38475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jayatilleke S. Bandara & Wusheng Yu, 2003. "How Desirable is the South Asian Free Trade Area? A Quantitative Economic Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(9), pages 1293-1323, September.
    12. Bhagwati, Jagdish & Panagariya, Arvind, 1996. "The Theory of Preferential Trade Agreements: Historical Evolution and Current Trends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 82-87, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shadat Hossain, 2018. "SAFTA and AFTA: a comparative welfare analysis of two regional trade agreements," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    2. Muhammad Ibrahim Shah, 2021. "Investigating the Role of Regional Economic Integration on Growth: Fresh Insights from South Asia," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 35-57, January.
    3. De, Prabir & Raihan, Selim & Ghani, Ejaz, 2013. "What does MFN trade mean for India and Pakistan ? can MFN be a Panacea ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6483, The World Bank.
    4. Raihan, Selim & Razzaque, Mohammad A., 2020. "Towards A Bi-lateral FTA with China: Potential Implications and Negotiation Strategies for Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 110526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hansa Jain, 2019. "Implications of SAFTA for Indian Economy: Trade, Compatibility and Welfare Effects," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 355-374, November.
    6. Ward, Megan & Herr, Hansjörg & Pédussel Wu, Jennifer, 2020. "South Asian Free Trade Area and food trade: Implications for regional food security," IPE Working Papers 148/2020, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    7. Nasir Iqbal & Saima Nawaz, 2017. "Pakistan’s Bilateral Trade under MFN and SAFTA: Do Institutional and Non-Institutional Arrangements Matter?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 59-78.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SAFTA; Regional Integration; Market Access; Trade Facilitation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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