IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/37792.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE

Author

Listed:
  • Gurgul, Henryk
  • Lach, Łukasz

Abstract

This paper examines the nexus between political instability and economic growth in 10 CEE countries in transition in the period 1990-2009. Our results support the contention that political instability defined as a propensity for government change had a negative impact on growth. On the other hand, there was no causality in the opposite direction. A sensitivity analysis based on the application of a few hundred different variants of the initial econometric model confirmed the abovementioned findings only in the case where major government changes were applied to the definition of political instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurgul, Henryk & Lach, Łukasz, 2012. "Political instability and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE," MPRA Paper 37792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37792
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37792/1/MPRA_paper_37792.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jakob De Haan & Susanna Lundström & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Market‐oriented institutions and policies and economic growth: A critical survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 157-191, April.
    2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Economic Convergence and Economic Policies," NBER Working Papers 5039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena & Traynor, Thomas L, 1999. "Political Instability, Investment and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 8(1), pages 52-86, March.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1996. "Democracy and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Lee C. Adkins, 2009. "An Instrumental Variables Probit Estimator Using Gretl," EHUCHAPS, in: Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009, edition 1, chapter 4, pages 59-74, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    6. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    7. Takayama,Akira, 1985. "Mathematical Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521314985, January.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    9. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "Cross-country studies of growth and policy : methodological, conceptual, and statistical problems," Policy Research Working Paper Series 608, The World Bank.
    10. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    11. Nelson, Michael A & Singh, Ram D, 1998. "Democracy, Economic Freedom, Fiscal Policy, and Growth in LDCs: A Fresh Look," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(4), pages 677-696, July.
    12. Zhenhui Xu & Haizheng Li, 2008. "Political freedom, economic freedom, and income convergence: Do stages of economic development matter?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 183-205, June.
    13. Fedderke, Johannes & Klitgaard, Robert, 1998. "Economic Growth and Social Indicators: An Exploratory Analysis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 455-489, April.
    14. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    15. Sachs, Jeffrey D & Warner, Andrew M, 1997. "Fundamental Sources of Long-Run Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 184-188, May.
    16. Kuznets, Simon, 1973. "Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 247-258, June.
    17. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    18. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    19. Edgardo E. Zablotsky, 1996. "Political Stability and Economic Growth. A Two Way Relation," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 109, Universidad del CEMA.
    20. Jakob Haan, 2007. "Political institutions and economic growth reconsidered," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 281-292, June.
    21. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    22. Bleaney, Michael & Nishiyama, Akira, 2002. "Explaining Growth: A Contest between Models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, March.
    23. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February.
    24. Adam Przeworski & Fernando Limongi, 1993. "Political Regimes and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 51-69, Summer.
    25. Newey, Whitney K., 1987. "Efficient estimation of limited dependent variable models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 231-250, November.
    26. Clague, Christopher & Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen & Olson, Mancur, 1996. "Property and Contract Rights in Autocracies and Democracies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 243-276, June.
    27. Luisa Blanco & Robin Grier, 2009. "Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 76-95.
    28. Scully, Gerald W, 1988. "The Institutional Framework and Economic Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 652-662, June.
    29. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1978. "The Estimation of a Simultaneous Equation Generalized Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1193-1205, September.
    30. W. Kenn Farr & Richard A. Lord & J. Larry Wolfenbarger, 1998. "Economic Freedom, Political Freedom, and Economic Well-Being: A Causality Analysis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 247-262, Fall.
    31. Schneider, Friedrich & Frey, Bruno S., 1985. "Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-175, February.
    32. Wu, Wenbo & Davis, Otto A, 1999. "The Two Freedoms, Economic Growth and Development: An Empirical Study," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 100(1-2), pages 39-64, July.
    33. David Roodman, 2011. "Fitting fully observed recursive mixed-process models with cmp," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(2), pages 159-206, June.
    34. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
    35. G. S. Maddala & Lung-Fei Lee, 1976. "Recursive Models with Qualitative Endogenous Variables," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 525-545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cüneyt KILIÇ & Feyza BALAN & Unzule KURT, 2015. "Testing the Validity of Political Business Cycle for the Fragile Five Countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(605), W), pages 21-32, Winter.
    2. repec:agr:journl:v:4(605):y:2015:i:4(605):p:21-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:aly:journl:202209 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Selçuk Çağrı ESENER & Evren İPEK, 2018. "The Impacts of Public Expenditure, Government Stability and Corruption on Per Capita Growth: An Empirical Investigation on Developing Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 26(36).
    5. Fernando Tohmé & M. Ángeles Caraballo & Carlos Dabús, 2022. "Instability, political regimes and economic growth. A theoretical framework," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 291-317, February.
    6. Taoufik Bouraoui & Helmi Hammami, 2017. "Does political instability affect exchange rates in Arab Spring countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(55), pages 5627-5637, November.
    7. Esra Soyu Yıldırım & Cuma Demirtaş & Munise Ilıkkan Özgür, 2022. "Causality Relationship Between Economic, Financial, Political Risk and Growth: The Case of Turkey," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 165-186, January.
    8. Lin Chuan & Stavros Sindakis & Panagiotis Theodorou, 2024. "Examining the Impact of Political Stability on Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8179-8208, June.
    9. Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2020. "The impact of political instability on economic growth: the case of Guyana," MPRA Paper 103145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jannils Łukasz, 2021. "The concept of political instability in economic research," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 57(3), pages 268-284, September.
    11. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    12. Ali, Qamar & Raza, Ali & Narjis, Saadia & Saeed, Sahrish & Khan, Muhammad Tariq Iqbal, 2020. "Potential of renewable energy, agriculture, and financial sector for the economic growth: Evidence from politically free, partly free and not free countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 934-947.
    13. Xiaodong Gong & Maheshwar Rao, 2014. "‘The Economic Impact of Prolonged Political Instability: A Case Study of Fiji’," NATSEM Working Paper Series 14/26, University of Canberra, National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jian-Guang Shen, 2002. "Democracy and growth: An alternative empirical approach," Development and Comp Systems 0212002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jian-Guang Shen, 2003. "Democracy and growth: An alternative empirical approach," Macroeconomics 0303008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir Ahmed Fida, 2009. "Democratic Institutions and Variability of Economic Growth in Pakistan: Some Evidence from the Time-series Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 269-289.
    4. Witold Jerzy Henisz, 2004. "Political Institutions and Policy Volatility," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, March.
    5. Pettersson, Jan, 2003. "Democracy, Consolidation and Growth," Research Papers in Economics 2002:16, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 15 Dec 2004.
    6. Shen, Jian-Guang, 2002. "Democracy and growth : An alternative empirical approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Freund, Caroline & Jaud, Melise, 2013. "Regime Change, Democracy and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 9282, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. John W. Dawson, 2007. "The Empirical Institutions-Growth Literature: Is Something Amiss at the Top?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 4(2), pages 184-196, May.
    10. Elias Papaioannou & Gregorios Siourounis, 2008. "Democratisation and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1520-1551, October.
    11. Andrew Hodge & Sriram Shankar & D. S. Prasada Rao & Alan Duhs, 2011. "Exploring the Links Between Corruption and Growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 474-490, August.
    12. Zhenhui Xu & Haizheng Li, 2008. "Political freedom, economic freedom, and income convergence: Do stages of economic development matter?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 183-205, June.
    13. Helena Helfer, 2017. "Prosperity-Enhancing Institutions: Towards a Comprehensive Composite Index," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 805-845, December.
    14. Jakob De Haan & Susanna Lundström & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2006. "Market‐oriented institutions and policies and economic growth: A critical survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 157-191, April.
    15. Doucouliagos, Chris & Ulubasoglu, Mehmet Ali, 2006. "Economic freedom and economic growth: Does specification make a difference?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 60-81, March.
    16. Alberto Chong & Luisa Zanforlin, 2004. "Inward-Looking Policies, Institutions, Autocrats, and Economic Growth in Latin America: An Empirical Exploration," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 335-361, February.
    17. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2007. "Демократизация И Экономический Рост [Democratization and Economic Growth]," MPRA Paper 23012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Aslý YENÝPAZARLI, 2017. "Economic freedom and effects on economic growth: A time series analysis for Turkey," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 345-351, September.
    19. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2005/018, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Hatice KÜÇÜKKAYA, 2017. "EUREFE’17 International Conference," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 343-344, September.
    21. Dutt, Pushan & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2016. "Democracy and policy stability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 499-517.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; political instability; CEE economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:37792. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.