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The canonical econophysics approach to the flash crash of May 6, 2010

Author

Listed:
  • Mazzeu, Joao
  • Otuki, Thiago
  • Da Silva, Sergio

Abstract

We carry out a statistical physics analysis of the flash crash of May 6, 2010 using data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average index sampled at a one-minute frequency from September 1, 2009 to May 31, 2010. We evaluate the hypothesis of a non-Gaussian Levy-stable distribution to model the data and pay particular attention to the distribution-tail behavior. We conclude that there is non-Gaussian scaling and thus that the flash crash cannot be considered an anomaly. From the study of tails, we find that the flash crash followed a power-law pattern outside the Levy regime, which was not the inverse cubic law. Finally, we show that the time-dependent variance of the DJIA-index returns, not tracked by the Levy, can be modeled in a straightforward manner by a GARCH (1, 1) process.

Suggested Citation

  • Mazzeu, Joao & Otuki, Thiago & Da Silva, Sergio, 2011. "The canonical econophysics approach to the flash crash of May 6, 2010," MPRA Paper 29138, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29138
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matsushita, Raul & Da Silva, Sergio & Da Fonseca, Regina & Nagata, Mateus, 2020. "Bypassing the truncation problem of truncated Lévy flights," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 559(C).
    2. Da Silva, Sergio, 2014. "Why Not Use Robots to Stabilize Stock Markets?," MPRA Paper 60567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Demos, Guilherme & Da Silva, Sergio & Matsushita, Raul, 2015. "Some Statistical Properties of the Mini Flash Crashes," MPRA Paper 65473, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    flash crash; econophysics; stable distribution; extreme events;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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