IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/21985.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri
[Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey]

Author

Listed:
  • Bilgin, Cevat
  • Sahbaz, Ahmet

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relations between export and growth for Turkey by using 1987-2006 monthly data. In other words, export-led growth hypothesis is being tested for the period of eighties and nineties. Industrial production index is used for the proxy of gross domestic product since we use monthly data. For the variables of export, import, terms of trade and industrial production index, first of all ADF unit root tests are carried out. All of the variables are found to be same degree integrated. Thus, long run relations among the variables are examined in the framework of Johansen co-integration analysis. Provided with the long run relation, vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated. Granger causality tests based on VECM and modified Wald tests (MWALD) defined by Toda Yamamoto (1995) are carried out to determine the directions of the relations among the variables. According to the test results, export-led growth is verified for the specified period.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilgin, Cevat & Sahbaz, Ahmet, 2009. "Türkiye’de Büyüme ve İhracat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkileri [Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey]," MPRA Paper 21985, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21985
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21985/1/MPRA_paper_21985.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    2. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 3577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Kunst, Robert M & Marin, Dalia, 1989. "On Exports and Productivity: A Causal Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 699-703, November.
    4. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
    5. Alwyn Young, 1991. "Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 369-405.
    6. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
    7. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2001. "Time-series evidence for Balassa's export-led growth hypothesis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 355-365.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emrah Sofuoğlu & Oktay Kızılkaya & Emrah Koçak, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of High-Technology Exports on the Growth of the Turkish Economy," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 205-229, January.
    2. Yahya Can DURA & Mustafa Kemal BESER & Hakan ACAROGLU, 2017. "Türkiye’nin Ihracata Dayali Buyumesinin Ekonometrik Analizi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 295-310.
    3. Ay e Ergin & Filiz Yetiz, 2017. "The Relationship among Gross Barter Terms of Trade, Exchange Rates, and Economic Growth: A Case in Turkey," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 738-745.
    4. Cagri Levent Uslu, 2016. "Cointegration and Causality between Turkish, Imports and GDP: A Structural Analysis," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 4(2), pages 91-100.
    5. Fatma Zeren & Burcu Kilinc Savrul, 2013. "Revisited Export-Led Growth Hypothesis For Selected European Countries: A Panel Hidden Cointegration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 18(1), pages 134-151, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo A. López, 2005. "Trade and Growth: Reconciling the Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 623-648, September.
    2. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1149 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Acheampong, Alex O., 2018. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption: What causes what and where?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 677-692.
    4. Christian Dreger & Dierk Herzer, 2013. "A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 39-60, August.
    5. Korinek, Anton & Servén, Luis, 2016. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation: Static losses, dynamic gains," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 104-136.
    6. Ho-don Yan & Cheng-lang Yang, 2012. "Does an Undervalued Currency Merit Economic Growth? – Evidence from Taiwan," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 37-57, March.
    7. Howell, Sabrina T., 2018. "Joint ventures and technology adoption: A Chinese industrial policy that backfired," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(8), pages 1448-1462.
    8. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:084 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Salman Haider & Aadil Ahmad Ganaie & Bandi Kamaiah, 2019. "Total Factor Productivity and Openness in Indian Economy: 1970–2011," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(1), pages 46-57, February.
    10. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade’s Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, July.
    11. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4039-4214, Elsevier.
    12. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2011. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3348-3354.
    13. Sjoholm, Fredrik, 1999. "Exports, Imports and Productivity: Results from Indonesian Establishment Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 705-715, April.
    14. Konstantakopoulou, Ioanna & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Measuring comparative advantages in the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 260-269.
    15. Quaicoe, Alexander & Aboagye, Anthony Q.Q. & Bokpin, Godfred A., 2017. "Assessing the impact of export processing zones on economic growth in Ghana," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1150-1163.
    16. P. J. Dawson, 2005. "The export-income relationship: the case of India," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 5(1), pages 16-29, January.
    17. Julen Berasaluce & José Romero, 2015. "Exports, imports, FDI and GDP in the Republic of Korea: 1980-2014," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2015-06, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    18. Eusuf, M Abu & Ahmed, Mansur, 2007. "Causality between Export and Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 21027, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 May 2008.
    19. M. Imam Alam, 2003. "Manufactured Exports, Capital Good Imports, and Economic Growth: Experience of Mexico and Brazil," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 85-105.
    20. Asmita Goswami & K. Narayanan, 2023. "Productivity and Exports: An Industry-Level Analysis of the Service Sector in India," Millennial Asia, , vol. 14(3), pages 379-405, September.
    21. Ritu Rani & Naresh Kumar, 2018. "Is There an Export- or Import-led Growth in BRICS Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 7(1), pages 13-23, June.
    22. László Kónya & Jai Pal Singh, 2006. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in India," Working Papers 2006.06, School of Economics, La Trobe University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; Johansen co-integration; Granger causality; modified Wald test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21985. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.