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世界经济长波导论:对危机与萧条的研究及预测
[An Introduction to World Economic Long Wave-Crises and Depressions: From Study to Anticipation]

Author

Listed:
  • dong, congcong

Abstract

As is considered in this paper，none of the ever existing long wave theories can totally describe or correctly explain the chronic fluctuating characters of the capitalist world economy system since the year 1857. Based on Karl Marx’s greatest work “Capital” and combined with considerable quantities of historical materials such as all kinds of writings about economic long wave both at home and abroad，the paper analyzes four inherently identical waves，tries to draw a fluctuating graph of the world economy with the wavelength supposed to be 50 years，and then forecasts the future of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • dong, congcong, 2006. "世界经济长波导论:对危机与萧条的研究及预测 [An Introduction to World Economic Long Wave-Crises and Depressions: From Study to Anticipation]," MPRA Paper 2106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2106
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic crisis; long wave; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian

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