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Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters

Author

Listed:
  • Jaba, Elisabeta
  • Balan, Christiana
  • Roman, Monica
  • Viorica, Daniela
  • Roman, Mihai

Abstract

The authors analyze the dynamics of the employment rate in Romania and propose a forecast model for it. In the paper we start with the hypothesis that the dynamics of the employment rate has a specific trend displayed by years-clusters differentiated on the value and the sign of the dynamics indexes of the phenomena by which we define the economic environment. The forecast method that we propose takes into consideration the environment conditions in which the studied phenomenon evolves and it implies the use of statistical methods of multivariate analysis (Principal Component Analysis and Discriminant Analysis). The application of such a forecast method supposes an algorithm that implies several stages: (1) the evaluation and synthesis of the inter-relations among the phenomena by which we describe the development environment employment rate dynamics; (2) the identification of the years-cluster to which the desired forecast horizon is classified; (3) the estimation of the employment rate dynamics for the specified forecast horizon. The proposed forecast model, examining the development environment of the influence factors, may be used for simulating forecast alternatives that can be considered for founding the economic development strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaba, Elisabeta & Balan, Christiana & Roman, Monica & Viorica, Daniela & Roman, Mihai, 2008. "Employment rate prognosis on the basis of the development environment trend displayed by years-clusters," MPRA Paper 20337, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20337
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20337/1/MPRA_paper_20337.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roman, Monica, 2008. "The efficiency analysis applied for the evaluation of labour market policies: Study case for Romania," MPRA Paper 20332, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2008.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali BAGER & Monica ROMAN & Meshal ALGELIDH & Bahr MOHAMMED, 2017. "Addressing Multicollinearity In Regression Models: A Ridge Regression Application," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 30-45, JULY.
    2. Ana-Maria AMARIEI (COJOCARIU), 2015. "Comparative Analyses Of Fertility Evolution In Iasi County," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 7(2), pages 224-231, August.
    3. Jaba, Elisabeta & Balan, Christiana & Roman, Mihai & Roman, Monica, 2010. "Statistical evaluation of spatial concentration of unemployment by gender," MPRA Paper 25161, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2010.
    4. Elisabeta JABA & Alina Mariuca IONESCU & Corneliu IATU & Christiana Brigitte BALAN, 2009. "The Evaluation Of The Regional Profile Of The Economic Development In Romania," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 537-549, November.

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    2. Jaba, Elisabeta & Balan, Christiana & Roman, Mihai & Roman, Monica, 2010. "Statistical evaluation of spatial concentration of unemployment by gender," MPRA Paper 25161, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2010.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment rate; transition; Romania; influence factors; principal component analysis; discriminant analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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