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Los mercados de opinión pública
[The markets of public opinion]

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  • Estrada, Fernando

Abstract

This paper proposes a central idea in diffusion research is that influential –a minority of individuals who influence an exceptional number of their peers- are important to formation of public opinion. Here we examine this idea, which we call the “influential hypothesis”, using the experiments of Watts-Salganik-Dodds in computer simulation of interpersonal influence processes with the works of Herbert Simon in “Bounded Rationality”. Under most conditions that we consider, we find that large cascades of influence are driven not by influential, but by a critical mass of easily influenced individuals. Although our results do no exclude the possibility that influential can be important, they suggest that the influential hypothesis requires more careful specification and testing than it has received.

Suggested Citation

  • Estrada, Fernando, 2010. "Los mercados de opinión pública [The markets of public opinion]," MPRA Paper 20161, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20161
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economics of Networks; Game Theory; Public Opinion; Mass Media; Information Systems; Social Methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology

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