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A small open economy model for Nigeria: a BVAR-DSGE approach

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  • Olayeni, Olaolu Richard

Abstract

Motivated by the way a small open economy should react to business cycles, we have estimated a small open economy (SOE) model for Nigeria. This is with a view to understanding how the Nigerian economy should be managed in the face of a cycle such as the current global meltdown. Our SOE model is used to generate dummy observation priors for the VAR in line with the BVAR-DSGE technique. We consider four monetary policy rules and estimate each of the resulting models using DYNARE 4.0.2. We find that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) places little weight on the exchange rate behaviour in reacting to the cycles, resulting in overshooting and persistence in the exchange rate but strongly reacts to the behaviour of inflation and, to a lesser degree, of output, output gap or its growth following the shocks. We conclude that it will be important for the CBN to pursue a guided exchange rate policy by actively responding to the exchange rate movement to avoid overshooting and persistence, that the terms of trade must be endogenize and that there is scope for the CBN to learn from past policy outcome by building a much stronger feedback.

Suggested Citation

  • Olayeni, Olaolu Richard, 2009. "A small open economy model for Nigeria: a BVAR-DSGE approach," MPRA Paper 16180, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:16180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip Liu, 2006. "A Small New Keynesian Model of the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2005. "Comparing shocks and frictions in US and euro area business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 161-183.
    3. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    4. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
    5. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka & Dauda Olalekan Yinusa, 2023. "External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(1), pages 132-153, January.
    2. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Oil price shocks, fuel subsidies and macroeconomic (in)stability in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 105464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Oladunni, Sunday, 2019. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Oil-exporting Small Open Economies: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98639, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    BVAR-DSGE; SOE; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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