IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14775.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The peak of oil extraction and a modified maximin principle

Author

Listed:
  • Bazhanov, Andrei

Abstract

The term "oil peak" usually is connected with the positive analysis problem, namely, with the problem of defining the year when the increase in the rate of oil extraction will be physically impossible. However, a normative approach to the problem of optimal extraction of a nonrenewable resource seems more important. We consider the economy which depends on the essential nonrenewable resource and the rate of the resource extraction increases over time. At some instant the government gradually switches to a sustainable (in sense of nondecreasing consumption over time) pattern of the resource extraction. Different criteria are considered for the construction some curves of switching to decreasing paths of the resource depletion. Consumption paths have diverse behavior patterns along these curves, including a path of unlimited growth. A new approach to the Rawlsian maximin criterion which allows for growth of consumption is offered.

Suggested Citation

  • Bazhanov, Andrei, 2006. "The peak of oil extraction and a modified maximin principle," MPRA Paper 14775, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Feb 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14775/1/MPRA_paper_14775.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William D. Nordhaus & James Tobin, 1973. "Is Growth Obsolete?," NBER Chapters, in: The Measurement of Economic and Social Performance, pages 509-564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kenneth Arrow & Partha Dasgupta & Lawrence Goulder & Gretchen Daily & Paul Ehrlich & Geoffrey Heal & Simon Levin & Karl-Göran Mäler & Stephen Schneider & David Starrett & Brian Walker, 2004. "Are We Consuming Too Much?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 147-172, Summer.
    3. Asheim, Geir B. & Buchholz, Wolfgang & Hartwick, John M. & Mitra, Tapan & Withagen, Cees, 2007. "Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 213-229, March.
    4. Griffin, James M & Gregory, Paul R, 1976. "An Intercountry Translog Model of Energy Substitution Responses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 845-857, December.
    5. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    6. Poterba, James M, 1988. "Are Consumers Forward Looking? Evidence from Fiscal Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 413-418, May.
    7. Pindyck, Robert S, 1979. "Interfuel Substitution and the Industrial Demand for Energy: An International Comparison," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 169-179, May.
    8. James Konow, 2003. "Which Is the Fairest One of All? A Positive Analysis of Justice Theories," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1188-1239, December.
    9. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    10. repec:bla:scandj:v:96:y:1994:i:2:p:257-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Joseph Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 123-137.
    12. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2006. "Decreasing of Oil Extraction: Consumption behavior along transition paths," MPRA Paper 469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Simon Kuznets & Lillian Epstein & Elizabeth Jenks, 1946. "National Product since 1869," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn46-1, June.
    14. Fuss, Melvyn A., 1977. "The demand for energy in Canadian manufacturing : An example of the estimation of production structures with many inputs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-116, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrei V. Bazhanov, 2008. "Maximin-optimal sustainable growth with nonrenewable resource and externalities," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2008_11, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    2. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Inconsistency between a criterion and the initial conditions," MPRA Paper 6792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2007. "Switching to a sustainable efficient extraction path," MPRA Paper 2976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2007. "The transition to an oil contraction economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 186-193, October.
    5. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth: Compatibility between criterion and the initial state," MPRA Paper 9914, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2007. "The peak of oil extraction and consistency of the government's short- and long-run policies," MPRA Paper 2507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2007. "The transition to an oil contraction economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 186-193, October.
    3. Bazhanov, Andrei & Belyaev, Alexander, 2009. "Адекватность Закрытой Модели Для Российской Экономики В Задаче Сравнительного Анализа Энергетической Стратегии России [Adequacy of a closed model for Russian economy in the problem of comparative a," MPRA Paper 15109, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2006. "Decreasing of Oil Extraction: Consumption behavior along transition paths," MPRA Paper 469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth in a resource-based economy: the extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 12350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Maximin-optimal sustainable growth with nonrenewable resource and externalities," MPRA Paper 9510, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jul 2008.
    7. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Inconsistency between a criterion and the initial conditions," MPRA Paper 6792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Maximin-optimal sustainable growth in a resource-based imperfect economy," MPRA Paper 16245, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Jul 2009.
    9. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2013. "Constant-utility paths in a resource-based economy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 342-355.
    10. Hepburn, Cameron & Teytelboym, Alexander & Cohen, Francois, 2018. "Is Natural Capital Really Substitutable?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-12, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    11. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2007. "Switching to a sustainable efficient extraction path," MPRA Paper 2976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Cairns, Robert D. & Martinet, Vincent, 2021. "Growth and long-run sustainability," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 381-402, August.
    13. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Why do many resource-rich countries have negative genuine saving?: Anticipation of better times or rapacious rent seeking," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 28-44, January.
    14. Schilling, Markus & Chiang, Lichun, 2011. "The effect of natural resources on a sustainable development policy: The approach of non-sustainable externalities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 990-998, February.
    15. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    16. Cheviakov, Alexei F. & Hartwick, John, 2009. "Constant per capita consumption paths with exhaustible resources and decaying produced capital," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2969-2973, October.
    17. Mitra, Tapan & Asheim, Geir B. & Buchholz, Wolfgang & Withagen, Cees, 2013. "Characterizing the sustainability problem in an exhaustible resource model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(5), pages 2164-2182.
    18. McGrath, Luke & Hynes, Stephen & McHale, John, 2019. "Augmenting the World Bank's estimates: Ireland's genuine savings through boom and bust," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Bazhanov, A., 2011. "The Dependence of the Potential Sustainability of a Resource Economy on the Initial State: a Comparison of Models Using the Example of Russian Oil Extraction," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 12, pages 77-100.
    20. Luke McGrath & Stephen Hynes & John McHale, 2020. "Linking Sustainable Development Assessment in Ireland and the European Union with Economic Theory," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 51(2), pages 327-355.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonrenewable resource; Intergenerational justice; Generalized Rawlsian criterion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14775. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.