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Scenarios for sustainable peace in colombia by year 2019

Author

Listed:
  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

Abstract

This paper presents the simulation results of the model of cyclical terrorist murder for Colombia (Gómez-Sorzano, 2005) on the purpose of doing sensitivity analysis to help the country in the design of a policy bringing sustainable peace before year 2019. The first part presents 11 scenarios 2005-2010. The final section shows 18 additional scenarios 2006-2019. According to them peace will be attained around year 2008 and sustainable peace will be granted before year 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "Scenarios for sustainable peace in colombia by year 2019," MPRA Paper 135, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Sep 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:135
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/135/1/MPRA_paper_135.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclical terrorist murder; democratic security policy; sustainable peace;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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