IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/134.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019

Author

Listed:
  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

Abstract

This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the growing concern regarding the escalation of violence in Colombia; its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under different policy options and helping the country in the design of state policy drawing the lineaments for reaching the pacification of the country. I claim that the approach presented here is the only way of creating an econometric model for terrorist murder in Colombia. In the first part I use The Beveridge and Nelson decomposition of economic time series to estimate the cyclical component of murder, which is used later to construct a theoretically and statistically satisfying model to account for cyclically motivated terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. The variables that together account for eighty three percent of the variation in cyclical terrorist murder are the years of Colombia’s La Violencia period when the peasant self-defense movements appeared, the years of the so-called National Front political collusion between the two main establishment parties, the real trade balance, the size of Colombia’s military forces as a proxy for all armed forces (military, para-military, guerrilla, and drug-related) in the country, the unemployment rate, the number of students matriculated in all modalities and people displaced in the country. The forecasts for cyclical terrorist murder for 2003-2004 show the big dilemma facing the Colombian authorities: the strong reduction of displaced people from 212,000 in 2003 to 117,000 in 2004 boosted the cyclical terrorist murder in the countryside, erasing the initial results by president Uribe’s administration at controlling the intensity of the conflict and implying that any future policy at diminishing it should control the number of displaced people, one of the biggest problems facing Colombia today. The final section presents forecasts for 2005-2019 suggesting, that peace will be attained around year 2008 and, that the way, at this point to reach sustainable peace is through the continuation of the Democratic Security Policy and strong presidential leadership headed towards disarmament of all armed actors in the country combined with the implementing of political and social changes that will secure lasting peace before year 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "A model of cyclical terrorist murder in Colombia, 1950-2004. Forecasts 2005-2019," MPRA Paper 134, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 May 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/134/1/MPRA_paper_134.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Levitt Steven & Mauricio Rubio, 2000. "Understanding crime in Colombia and what can be done about It," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 3735, Fedesarrollo.
    2. Ariel Dinar & Andrew Keck, 1997. "Private irrigation investment in Colombia: effects of violence, macroeconomic policy, and environmental conditions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Dinar, Ariel & Keck, Andrew, 1997. "Private irrigation investment in Colombia: effects of violence, macroeconomic policy, and environmental conditions," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, March.
    4. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2007. "Developing the concept of Sustainable Peace using Econometrics and scenarios granting Sustainable Peace in Colombia by year 2019," MPRA Paper 5655, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Nov 2007.
    2. Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019," MPRA Paper 539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Brauer, Jurgen & Gomez-Sorzano, Alejandro & Sethuraman, Sankar, 2004. "Decomposing violence: political murder in Colombia, 1946-1999," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 447-461, June.
    4. Brauer, J & Gomez-Sorzano, A.G., 2004. "Homicide Cycles in Colombia," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 29-50.
    5. Goldsmith, Peter D. & Gunjal, Kisan & Ndarishikanye, Barnabe, 2004. "Rural-urban migration and agricultural productivity: the case of Senegal," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 33-45, July.
    6. Gebretsadik, Kidanemariam Abreha & Romstad, Eirik, 2020. "Climate and farmers’ willingness to pay for improved irrigation water supply," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    7. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Edeh, Hyacinth, 2017. "Constraints for small-scale private irrigation systems in the North Central zone of Nigeria: Insights from a typology analysis and a case study:," NSSP working papers 47, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Alvaro J. Riascos & Juan F. Vargas, 2011. "Violence and growth in Colombia: A review of the quantitative literature," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 15-20, July.
    9. Verteramo Chiu, Leslie J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2015. "Perception and Action in a Conflict Zone: a Study of Rural Economy and Rural Life amidst Narcos in Northeastern Mexico," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205447, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. González, María A & Lopez, Rigoberto A, 2007. "Political Violence and Farm Household Efficiency in Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 367-392, January.
    11. Gonzalez, Maria A & Lopez, Rigoberto A, 2007. "Political Violence and Farm Household Efficiency in Colombia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 367-392, January.
    12. Wasantha Athukorala & Clevo Wilson, 2017. "Distributional impacts of irrigation-induced agricultural development in a semi-subsistence economy: new evidence," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(1), pages 59-75, January.
    13. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    14. Carlos Pestana Barros & Todd Sandler, 2003. "Internal and external threats: Defence economic analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 385-388.
    15. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2020. "Education, neopatrimonialism, and revolutions," Working Papers halshs-02613158, HAL.
    16. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    17. Debojyoti Mazumder & Rajit Biswas, 2017. "Political Regime Change and State Performance," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 8(1).
    18. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2010. "State Capacity, Conflict, and Development," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 1-34, January.
    19. Mauricio Cárdenas & Roberto Junguito B. & Mónica Pachón B., 2006. "Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes in Colombia : the Effects of the 1991 Constitution," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
    20. Helge Holtermann, 2012. "Explaining the Development–Civil War Relationship," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(1), pages 56-78, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Colombia; Beveridge and Nelson; cyclical terrorist murder; democratic security policy; sustainable peace; permanent peace; lasting peace;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.