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Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings

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  • Moral-Benito, Enrique

Abstract

In the evaluation of transportation infrastructure projects, some non-tradable goods such as time are usually key determinants of the result. However, obtaining monetary values for these goods is not always easy. This paper introduces a novel approach based on the combination of bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis. This methodology will allow to obtain predictive distributions of the monetary values for this type of goods. Therefore, uncertainty is formally considered in the analysis. Moreover, the proposed method is easy to apply and inexpensive both in terms of time and money. Finally, an application to the value of travel time savings is also presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2008. "Bayesian posterior prediction and meta-analysis: an application to the value of travel time savings," MPRA Paper 12861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12861
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luca Zamparini & Aura Reggiani, 2007. "Meta-Analysis and the Value of Travel Time Savings: A Transatlantic Perspective in Passenger Transport," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 377-396, December.
    2. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    3. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Campos, Javier & de Rus, Gines & Barron, Ignacio, 2007. "A review of HSR experiences around the world," MPRA Paper 12397, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    6. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Hang, Markus & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2020. "Meta-analysis in finance research: Opportunities, challenges, and contemporary applications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Prediction; Meta-Analysis; Uncertainty; Value of Travel Time Savings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L91 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Transportation: General
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

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