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Comparing two simulation approaches of an energy-emissions model: Debating analytical depth with policymakers’ expectations

Author

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  • Koundouri, Phoebe
  • Alamanos, Angelos
  • Arampatzidis, Ioannis
  • Devves1, Stathis
  • Sachs, Jeffrey D

Abstract

As global commitments to decarbonization intensify, energy-emission models are becoming increasingly vital for policymaking, offering data-driven insights to evaluate the feasibility and impact of climate strategies. These models help governments design evidence-based policies, assess mitigation pathways, and ensure alignment with national and international targets, such as the Paris Agreement and the EU Green Deal. Researchers often spend a lot of time considering their modelling choices to develop the best possible tools in terms of data-requirements, accuracy, computational demand, while there is always a ‘debate’ of complexity versus explicability and ready-to-use models for policymaking. Especially for energy-emissions models, given their increasing policy-relevance, and the need to provide insights fast for short-term policies (e.g. 2030, or 2050 net-zero goals), such considerations become increasingly pressing. In this paper, we present two different versions of the same energy-emissions model, and we run them for the same study area, planning horizon, and scenario analysis. The two versions differ only in how they approach complexity: Version1 is a more ‘detailed’, complex model, while Version2 is a ‘simpler’ and less data-hungry one. A set of evaluation criteria was then used to qualitatively compare these two versions, based on modelling- and policymaking-related considerations, debating modelers’ and policymakers’ expectations and preferences. We reflect on best modelling practices, discuss different goal-dependent approaches, providing useful guidance for modelers and policymakers

Suggested Citation

  • Koundouri, Phoebe & Alamanos, Angelos & Arampatzidis, Ioannis & Devves1, Stathis & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 2025. "Comparing two simulation approaches of an energy-emissions model: Debating analytical depth with policymakers’ expectations," MPRA Paper 124147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:124147
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy-emissions modelling; Decarbonization pathways; Model development; LEAP; Models to policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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