Proyección del rendimiento de cultivos de grano basada en los informes semanales de humedad edáfica y estadio fenológico de SAGyP[Grain crop yield prediction based on weekly soil moisture and phenological stage reports from SAGyP]

The paper proposes to use weekly soil moisture and phenological stage data, provided by SAGyP reports, to predict the yield of corn, soybeans (first and second sow), wheat and sunflower. The adjustment of specific models reveals a close relationship between soil moisture and the final yield of the four crops, regardless of the phenological stage of the crop. This apparent irrelevance of the phenological stage contradicts the agronomic literature, which is mainly based on field trials. However, the coefficients of the proposed models, which in turn can be directly interpreted as yield elasticities with respect to moisture, are consistent with the results of other authors. At the end of the paper, the use of the obtained elasticities to predict the national harvest and optimize the management of the climatic risk inherent to agricultural production at a firm level is discussed.