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Spatial Analysis and Time Trend Regression of Multifactorial Violence-related Death and its Connection with Public Health in Nigeria

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  • Okunlola, Oluyemi A.
  • Otekunrin, Oluwaseun A.
  • Adewumi, Idowu P.
  • Oguntola, Toyin O.

Abstract

Interpersonal violence poses a formidable obstacle to harmonious coexistence, socioeconomic development, and public health globally, given its deleterious consequences and attendant mortality. In a multicultural society like Nigeria, violence is an unfortunate inevitability. This study undertakes a spatial analysis and Poisson time trend analysis of violence-related mortality cases in Nigeria, aiming to elucidate the dynamics, assess the public health burden, estimate relative risk, identify hotspots, and inform policy interventions to mitigate violence in severely affected areas. A total of 195,170 cases were recorded between 2006 and 2023, with Borno (46,425), Lagos (12,086), and Kaduna (10,548) accounting for 24%, 6%, and 5% of cases, respectively. In contrast, Ekiti state had the lowest number of cases (752). Notably, death rates in 2014 and 2015 accounted for 12% and 9% of all deaths rates that were attributed to violence during the period considered. The violent death rate showed clear regional differences, with over half of all deaths occurring in the North Central and North East regions. The South East and South West regions contributed 8% and 10% of the remaining share, respectively, while the North West and South South regions contributed 12% and 14%, respectively. These figures show statistically significant socioeconomic and public health differences between the country's northern and southern regions (F = 82.709, P

Suggested Citation

  • Okunlola, Oluyemi A. & Otekunrin, Oluwaseun A. & Adewumi, Idowu P. & Oguntola, Toyin O., 2025. "Spatial Analysis and Time Trend Regression of Multifactorial Violence-related Death and its Connection with Public Health in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 123555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:123555
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fisayo Fagbemi & Adeyemi Fajingbesi, 2022. "Political violence: why conflicts can result from sub-Saharan African socioeconomic conditions," Journal of Business and Socio-economic Development, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 153-164, May.
    2. Janet Monisola Oluwaleye, 2021. "Youth Unemployment, Rising Criminality and the Challenge of Sustainable Security in Nigeria’s South West Region," International Journal of Social Sciences Perspectives, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 31-40.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Violence deaths; Poisson; Trend; Spatial analysis; Public health; Violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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