Air Pollution and Fertility Outcomes in Thailand

The intertwining dynamics of air pollution and fertility have emerged as crucial facets of public health and demographic studies. This study evaluates the impact of air pollution exposure due to fires on fertility outcomes of women in Thailand. We construct a woman-age panel using the Thai 2019 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and high-resolution satellite data on the incidence of fires in neighboring areas as an exogenous source of variation that impacts PM2.5 levels in downwind areas. Exploiting the exogenous fluctuations in PM2.5 levels using the wind direction IV, we identify the causal effect of PM2.5 exposure on fertility. Our results show that an increase in the levels of PM2.5 pollution concentration by1µg/m3 causes a 7-10% drop in births next year with respect to our sample mean. The fertility decline is corroborated by an increase in short-term contraceptive use by women. We find stronger effects for women residing in rural areas. We also find evidence of the child quality-quantity tradeoff. With a first year of life exposure to PM2.5, we observe an increase in children’s protein consumption and preschool enrollment. Since declining fertility can change the demographic composition and affect economic development, these results add to our knowledge of the varied ways in which air pollution can affect society.