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Décoder l’économie pour mieux prévoir : cas de Madadagascar
[Decoding the economy for better forecasting: the case of Madadagascar]

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  • RANDRIAMANANTENA, Rija R.

Abstract

This paper presents a comparison of econometric models used for economic forecasting, focusing on Madagascar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The models analyzed include OLS, ARIMA, ARIMAX and VAR, each with its advantages and limitations. The OLS model is selected for its robust performance according to AIC and SIC criteria, although a hybrid approach or the integration of modern techniques such as neural networks is recommended for more accurate forecasts. Finally, the paper underlines the importance of foreign trade (exports and imports) in economic dynamics, while stressing the need to contextualize results for informed policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • RANDRIAMANANTENA, Rija R., 2024. "Décoder l’économie pour mieux prévoir : cas de Madadagascar [Decoding the economy for better forecasting: the case of Madadagascar]," MPRA Paper 122900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122900
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/122900/1/MPRA_paper_122900.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrianady, Josué R., 2023. "Crunching the Numbers: A Comparison of Econometric Models for GDP Forecasting in Madagascar," MPRA Paper 116916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    1. Josué, ANDRIANADY & M. Randriamifidy, Fitiavana & H. P. Ranaivoson, Michel & Miora Steffanie, Thierry, 2023. "Econometric Analysis and Forecasting of Madagascar’s Economy: An ARIMAX Approach," MPRA Paper 118763, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic modelling; forecasting; GDP; international trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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