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Modélisation de la résilience post-cyclonique à Mananjary : Une analyse Probit Multivariée
[Modeling post-cyclone resilience in Mananjary: A Multivariate Probit Analysis]

Author

Listed:
  • RAVELOSON, Armel R.
  • Andrianady, Josué R.
  • Andrianavony, Kanto J.
  • RANDRIAMANANTENA, Rija R.
  • RANDRIAMANANTENA, Avo L.
  • RANDRIAMIZANA, Junot L.

Abstract

This article analyzes the territorial resilience of the Mananjary district in Madagascar in response to tropical cyclones, focusing on the communes of Tsaravary and Tsarahafatra. The study employs a multivariate Probit model to examine three hypotheses: the relevance of resilience policies, the impact of adaptation strategies on resilience, and the relationship between improved agricultural practices and resilience to cyclones. Data is sourced from surveys of 1,180 households, interviews with local and international institutions, and climatic data related to past cyclones such as Batsirai, Freddy, and Alvaro. Additional funding could enhance this study by expanding the sample size, strengthening data collection, and deepening the analysis. This would also facilitate a more detailed exploration of the long-term impacts of cyclones and broaden the proposed adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • RAVELOSON, Armel R. & Andrianady, Josué R. & Andrianavony, Kanto J. & RANDRIAMANANTENA, Rija R. & RANDRIAMANANTENA, Avo L. & RANDRIAMIZANA, Junot L., 2024. "Modélisation de la résilience post-cyclonique à Mananjary : Une analyse Probit Multivariée [Modeling post-cyclone resilience in Mananjary: A Multivariate Probit Analysis]," MPRA Paper 122852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122852
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resilience; vulnerability; territory; shock; adaptive capacity.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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