Extension du modèle Solow Swan vers une approche plus environnementaliste: un modèle déterministe pour Madagascar[Extension of the Solow-Swan model with an environmentalist approach: a deterministic model for Madagascar]

This paper extends the Solow-Swan growth model by incorporating environmental factors, applied specifically to Madagascar. The model simulates three scenarios: (1) a baseline scenario with low savings and high deforestation; (2) an economic reform scenario with increased savings but no environmental improvements; and (3) a combined reform scenario with higher savings and reduced deforestation. The findings reveal that while economic reforms lead to moderate growth, sustainable natural resource management is essential for balanced and resilient development. The study highlights Madagascar’s challenges, including population pressure, deforestation, and climate shocks, and provides insights into policies that align economic and environmental goals. The paper also outlines future improvements, such as developing a stochastic version of the model, to address uncertainties and external shocks more effectively.